Estimating the trend in employment growth

Daniel Aaronson and Scott Brave

Chicago Fed Letter, 2013, issue July, No 312

Abstract: For the unemployment rate to decline, the U.S. economy needs to generate above-trend job growth. We currently estimate trend employment growth to be around 80,000 jobs per month, and we expect it to decline over the remainder of the decade, due largely to changing labor force demographics and slower population growth.

Keywords: Employment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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