As Manufacturing Weakens, Consumers Pull Back

Jose Mustre-del-Rio and Emily Pollard

Economic Bulletin, 2019, 3

Abstract: The United States has faced two recent downturns in manufacturing: one from 2014 to 2015 and one that has been ongoing since 2018. We examine consumption growth at the state level to see how consumers have responded to the current downturn relative to the last. We find that during the current downturn, changes in consumption growth at the state level have been negatively correlated with the state?s share of workers in manufacturing. In contrast, we find the opposite relationship during the 2014?15 downturn.

Keywords: Manufacturing; Consumption Growth; Consumers; Employment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E20 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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