The Changing Investor Composition of U.S. Treasuries, Part 1: Foreign Treasury Sales Could Raise U.S. Yields

Karlye Dilts Stedman

Economic Bulletin, 2025, 4

Abstract: Although their market share has been falling steadily since 2010, foreign investors retain a large share of Treasuries outstanding. As a result, increased Treasury sales from this group could have substantial implications for yields. This Bulletin, the first in a two-part series, shows that a modest increase in liquidation among foreign investors could raise U.S. Treasury yields by 25 to 100 basis points. Even in the absence of outright sales, diminished purchasing of additional Treasury issuance is likely to drive up yields.

Date: 2025
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