Declining Immigration and an Aging Population Are Reducing Breakeven Employment Growth

Yusuf Mercan

Economic Bulletin, 2025, 4

Abstract: Two forces are weighing on labor force growth in the United States: an aging population and recent declines in immigration. These two forces reduce the number of new jobs required to maintain a stable unemployment rate each month, known as breakeven employment growth. Lower breakeven employment growth may help contextualize recent soft payroll readings, suggesting less weakness in labor demand than payroll numbers alone might imply.

Date: 2025
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