An Alternative Version of the KC Fed LMCI Suggests the Level of Activity Was Little Changed but Momentum Decelerated Sharply in October

Jose Mustre-del-Rio, Johnson Oliyide and Emily Pollard

Economic Bulletin, 2025, 3

Abstract: Last month, we published an alternative version of the Kansas City Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI) that excludes delayed government series to continue tracking the health of the labor market in a systematic fashion. The October reading of this restricted LMCI suggests little change in the labor market, but a deceleration in labor market momentum caused by a high number of announced job cuts. This has pushed down our model's forecast of payroll employment growth for October.

Keywords: Labor Market Conditions Indicators (FRB Kansas City LMCI); labor market; job loss; unemployment rate (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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