High Costs and Uncertainty Will Likely Keep Cattle Inventories Low and Beef Prices Elevated for Some Time

Francisco Scott

Economic Bulletin, 2026, 4

Abstract: Food-at-home inflation has ticked up in 2026, driven partly by higher beef prices. Beef prices have increased as U.S. consumption of beef has outpaced domestic supply. Despite favorable market signals, supply constraints may keep beef prices elevated for some time. Growing uncertainty in the conditions for raising cattle have prevented ranchers from meaningfully expanding herds to increase domestic supply. Continued uncertainty may stall herd rebuilding, further constraining the beef supply and driving up prices.

Date: 2026
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