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Has the Investment Boom Expanded U.S. Productive Capacity?

Nida Cakir Melek

Economic Bulletin, 2026, 4

Abstract: U.S. productive capacity has expanded, but so far almost entirely in one narrow segment: the industries that make computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors, which account for about 3 percent of U.S. manufacturing output. Capacity in the rest of manufacturing remains below its pre-pandemic level. Where the AI build-out presses hardest on domestic suppliers, adjustment is occurring through higher prices and imports rather than broad new U.S. capacity.

Date: 2026
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