KC Fed LMCI Can Help Sift Out Noise in Payroll Data

Amaze Lusompa and Jose Mustre-del-Rio

Economic Bulletin, 2025, 3

Abstract: Data on monthly payroll growth are noisy and subject to revisions, making real-time assessment of the health of the labor market challenging. We use the information encoded in the Kansas City Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI) to get a cleaner picture of payroll growth. According to the LMCI-implied estimates of payroll growth, the labor market may be stronger than official data suggest.

Keywords: Labor Market Conditions Indicators (FRB Kansas City LMCI); Payroll; Current Establishment Survey (CES) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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