A Macroeconomic News Index for Constructing Nowcasts of U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth
Sean P. Grover,
Kevin Kliesen () and
Michael McCracken ()
Additional contact information
Sean P. Grover: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Review, 2016, vol. 98, issue 4, 277-296
Analyzing the performance of the economy in real time is a challenge for those who must forecast macroeconomic variables such as inflation or employment. A key aspect of this challenge is evaluating the incoming flow of information contained in economic announcements. In this article, the authors develop a simple-to-read index of these announcements that they then use to construct nowcasts. The index tracks whether key economic data have come in stronger, weaker, or as expected during the current quarter relative to a baseline consensus forecast. Specifically, the data releases are weighted relative to their importance in updating forecasts of real gross domestic product growth during the current quarter.
JEL-codes: C22 C53 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/publicat ... c-product-growth.pdf Full text (application/pdf)
http://dx.doi.org/10.20955/r.2016.277-296 http://dx.doi.org/10.20955/r.2016.277-296 (text/html)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedlrv:00065
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://files.stloui ... htdocs/publications/
Access Statistics for this article
More articles in Review from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Anna Oates ().