Details about Kevin L. Kliesen

E-mail:
Homepage:	http://research.stlouisfed.org/econ/kliesen
Postal address:	Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis P.O. Box 442 Saint Louis MO 63166
Workplace:	Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Kevin L. Kliesen.

Last updated 2024-09-05. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pkl42

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Jump to Journal Articles

Working Papers

2025

1. Uncertainty Shocks Can Trigger Recessionary Conditions
   On the Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

2024

2. Employment Trends before and after Business Expansion Peaks
   On the Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
3. Has the U.S. Economy Transitioned to a Higher Long-run Real Interest Rate Regime?
   On the Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
4. What the Transcripts Reveal About the FOMC’s Pre-Emptive Easing in July 1995
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

2023

5. Gauging the Fed’s Current Tightening Actions: A Historical Perspective
   On the Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
6. Risk Management in Monetary Policymaking: The 1994-95 Fed Tightening Episode
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
7. Scenarios for Inflation in 2023: Base Effects in Action
   On the Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

2022

8. A Comparison of Fed "Tightening" Episodes since the 1980s
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
   See also Journal Article A Comparison of Fed "Tightening" Episodes since the 1980s, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking (2023) (2023)
9. A Look at Fed Tightening Episodes since the 1980s: Part I
   On the Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
10. Are State Economic Conditions a Harbinger of a National Recession?
    On the Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
11. Dating Economic Recessions in Real Time Is a Challenge
    On the Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
12. Economic Effects of Fed Tightening Episodes since the 1980s: Part II
    On the Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
13. Peaks in Housing Construction as a Recession Signal
    On the Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
14. What Are Financial Market Stress Indexes Showing?
    On the Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

2021

15. FRED-SD: A Real-Time Database for State-Level Data with Forecasting Applications
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
    See also Journal Article FRED-SD: A real-time database for state-level data with forecasting applications, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2023) View citations (8) (2023)

2020

16. Challenges to the Fed’s New Monetary Policy Strategy
    On the Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
17. Key Elements of the Fed’s New Monetary Policy Strategy
    On the Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
18. Managing a New Policy Framework: Paul Volcker, the St. Louis Fed, and the 1979-82 War on Inflation
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
    See also Journal Article Managing a New Policy Framework: Paul Volcker, the St. Louis Fed, and the 1979-82 War on Inflation, Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2021) (2021)
19. The St. Louis Fed's Financial Stress Index, Version 2.0
    On the Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
20. Using Data to Show When Recessions End
    On the Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
21. What Is Yield Curve Control?
    On the Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

2018

22. Is American Manufacturing in Decline?
    Studies in Applied Economics, The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Is American manufacturing in decline?, Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan (2018) View citations (2) (2018)
23. The Nonlinear Effects of Uncertainty Shocks
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (12)
    See also Journal Article The nonlinear effects of uncertainty shocks, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter (2020) View citations (11) (2020)

2012

24. Federal Reserve lending to troubled banks during the financial crisis, 2007-10
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (4)

2011

25. How does the FOMC learn about economic revolutions? evidence from the New Economy Era, 1994-2001
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

2010

26. Do oil shocks drive business cycles? some U.S. and international evidence
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (21)
    See also Journal Article DO OIL SHOCKS DRIVE BUSINESS CYCLES? SOME U.S. AND INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press (2011) View citations (41) (2011)

2008

27. Oil and the U.S. macroeconomy: an update and a simple forecasting exercise
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Oil and the U.S. macroeconomy: an update and a simple forecasting exercise, Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2008) View citations (9) (2008)

2006

28. Forecasting inflation and output: comparing data-rich models with simple rules
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article Forecasting inflation and output: comparing data-rich models with simple rules, Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2008) View citations (12) (2008)

2005

29. Productivity measurement and monetary policymaking during the 1990s
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (4)

2004

30. Do productivity growth, budget deficits, and monetary policy actions affect real interest rates? evidence from macroeconomic announcement data
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (2)

Journal Articles

2024

1. Balance Sheet Normalization: Monitoring Quantities and Prices
   Economic Synopses, 2024, (10), 3 pages
2. Stephen D. King: We Need To Talk About Inflation: 14 Urgent Lessons from the Last 2,000 Years
   Business Economics, 2024, 59, (3), 193-196

2023

3. A Comparison of Fed "Tightening" Episodes since the 1980s
   International Journal of Central Banking, 2023, 19, (3), 423-450
   See also Working Paper A Comparison of Fed "Tightening" Episodes since the 1980s, Working Papers (2022) (2022)
4. FRED-SD: A real-time database for state-level data with forecasting applications
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2023, 39, (1), 279-297 View citations (8)
   See also Working Paper FRED-SD: A Real-Time Database for State-Level Data with Forecasting Applications, Working Papers (2021) (2021)
5. Lower Inflation, GDP Growth Positive Signs for U.S. Economy
   The Regional Economist, 2023
6. Measures of “Trend” Inflation
   Economic Synopses, 2023, (7), 2 pages
7. Pace of GDP Growth, Disinflation Key in U.S. Economic Outlook
   The Regional Economist, 2023
8. Slower GDP Growth and Falling Inflation in U.S. Economic Outlook for 2024
   The Regional Economist, 2023
9. Stubborn Inflation, Economic Resilience Major Themes in U.S. Outlook
   The Regional Economist, 2023
10. The COVID-19 Pandemic and Inflation: Lessons from Major US Wars
    Review, 2023, 105, (4), 234-260
11. The Mechanics of Fed Balance Sheet Normalization
    Economic Synopses, 2023, (18), 3 pages
12. The Rise (and Fall) of Inflation During the Early 2020s
    Page One Economics Newsletter, 2023, 6 pages

2022

13. A Growth-Accounting Perspective on the Post-Pandemic Economy
    Economic Synopses, 2022, (27), 1-2
14. GDP Decline, Inflation Heighten Uncertainty in U.S. Economic Outlook
    The Regional Economist, 2022
15. GDP Growth, Decelerating Inflation in U.S. Economic Outlook
    The Regional Economist, 2022
16. Inflation Remains Key Threat despite Strong U.S. Economic Outlook
    The Regional Economist, 2022
17. Using Beige Book Text Analysis to Measure Supply Chain Disruptions
    Economic Synopses, 2022, (18), 1-2 View citations (1)
18. Weaker GDP Growth, Inflation Uncertainty Dim U.S. Economic Outlook
    The Regional Economist, 2022

2021

19. Economic Improvements Anticipated in the Months Ahead
    The Regional Economist, 2021, 29, (1)
20. Economy Improves Quickly but Inflation Increases
    The Regional Economist, 2021
21. Higher-Than-Expected Inflation, Delta Variant Could Slow Real GDP Growth
    The Regional Economist, 2021
22. Inflation Remains Wild Card in U.S. GDP Outlook for 2022
    The Regional Economist, 2021
23. Managing a New Policy Framework: Paul Volcker, the St. Louis Fed, and the 1979-82 War on Inflation
    Review, 2021, 103, (1), 71-97
    See also Working Paper Managing a New Policy Framework: Paul Volcker, the St. Louis Fed, and the 1979-82 War on Inflation, Working Papers (2020) (2020)
24. Measuring Market-Based Inflation Expectations
    Economic Synopses, 2021, (6), 1-2
25. The Link Between Higher Commodity Prices and Inflation
    Economic Synopses, 2021, (22), 1-3
26. Two Percent Inflation Over the Next Year: Should You Take the Over or the Under?
    Economic Synopses, 2021, (11), 1-3

2020

27. Bad Medicine? Federal Debt and Deficits after COVID-19
    Economic Synopses, 2020, (32)
28. Economic Uncertainty Means Approaching GDP Forecasts with Caution
    The Regional Economist, 2020, 28, (2)
29. Forecasters Eye Uncertainties When Sizing Up U.S. Economic Outlook
    The Regional Economist, 2020, 28, (1)
30. Forecasts Point to Cautious Optimism for Near-term Rebound
    The Regional Economist, 2020, 28, (3)
31. Improving Conditions Could Bode Well for Economic Recovery
    The Regional Economist, 2020, 28, (4)
32. The Year of Living Dangerously: The COVID-19 Shock and the Probability of Deflation
    Economic Synopses, 2020, (14)
33. The nonlinear effects of uncertainty shocks
    Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2020, 24, (4), 19 View citations (11)
    See also Working Paper The Nonlinear Effects of Uncertainty Shocks, Working Papers (2018) View citations (12) (2018)

2019

34. A Bad Moon Rising? Uncertainty Shocks and Economic Outcomes
    Economic Synopses, 2019, (6) View citations (3)
35. Financial Markets Signal Concern about U.S. Economic Growth
    The Regional Economist, 2019, 27, (3)
36. Forecasters See Lower U.S. GDP Growth in 2020 as Headwinds Continue
    The Regional Economist, 2019, 27, (4)
37. Gauging Market Responses to Monetary Policy Communication
    Review, 2019, 101, (2), 69-91 View citations (7)
38. Headwinds, Tailwinds and Whirlwinds: Forecasting the 2019 Economy
    The Regional Economist, 2019, 27, (1)
39. Is the Fed Following a “Modernized” Version of the Taylor Rule? Part 1
    Economic Synopses, 2019, (2), 1-2 View citations (3)
40. Is the Fed Following a “Modernized” Version of the Taylor Rule? Part 2
    Economic Synopses, 2019, (3), 1-3 View citations (1)
41. U.S. GDP Shows Surprising Strength, But Challenges Remain
    The Regional Economist, 2019, 27, (2)

2018

42. Forecasters See Solid U.S. GDP Growth during Rest of 2018
    The Regional Economist, 2018, 26, (3)
43. Forecasters See U.S. GDP Growth Easing in 2019 after 2018 Surge
    The Regional Economist, 2018, 26, (4)
44. Gauging the Evolution of Monetary Policy Communication Before and After the Financial Crisis
    Economic Synopses, 2018, (27), 1-2 View citations (1)
45. Here’s Why U.S. Manufacturing Is Fundamentally Strong
    Economic Synopses, 2018, (4), 1-4
46. Is American manufacturing in decline?
    Business Economics, 2018, 53, (3), 107-123 View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper Is American Manufacturing in Decline?, Studies in Applied Economics (2018) View citations (2) (2018)
47. Recession Signals: The Yield Curve vs. Unemployment Rate Troughs
    Economic Synopses, 2018, (16), 1-3
48. U.S. Economic Growth Appears Solid This Year
    The Regional Economist, 2018, 26, (2)
49. U.S. Economy Continues to Strengthen
    The Regional Economist, 2018, 26, (1)

2017

50. Does Data Confusion Equal Forecast Confusion?
    Economic Synopses, 2017, (5), 1-3
51. Economy Bounces Back from Hurricanes
    The Regional Economist, 2017, 25, (4)
52. Handle with Care: Report on GDP for First Quarter
    The Regional Economist, 2017, 25, (2)
53. Living Standards in St. Louis and the Eighth Federal Reserve District: Let’s Get Real
    Review, 2017, 99, (4), 377-394
54. Momentum Appears to Have Swung Upward for Economy
    The Regional Economist, 2017, 25, (3)
55. Remembering Allan H. Meltzer
    Economic Synopses, 2017, (7), 1-2
56. Signals Are Mixed, but Optimism Is on the Rise
    The Regional Economist, 2017, 25, (1)
57. The end of alchemy: money, banking, and the future of the global economy
    Business Economics, 2017, 52, (3), 181-183

2016

58. A Macroeconomic News Index for Constructing Nowcasts of U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth
    Review, 2016, 98, (4), 277-296 View citations (2)
59. A Report on Economic Conditions in the Little Rock Zone
    Burgundy Books, 2016, (3Q)
    Also in Burgundy Books, 2014, (3Q) (2014)
    Burgundy Books, 2015, (3Q) (2015)
    Burgundy Books, 2016, (1Q) (2016)
    Burgundy Books, 2014, (1Q) (2014)
    Burgundy Books, 2014, (4Q) (2014)
    Burgundy Books, 2013, (4Q) (2013)
    Burgundy Books, 2016, (2Q) (2016)
    Burgundy Books, 2015, (2Q) (2015)
    Burgundy Books, 2014, (2Q) (2014)
    Burgundy Books, 2015, (1Q) (2015)
60. A Report on Economic Conditions in the Louisville Zone
    Burgundy Books, 2016, (2Q)
    Also in Burgundy Books, 2014, (1Q) (2014)
    Burgundy Books, 2015, (1Q) (2015)
    Burgundy Books, 2014, (2Q) (2014)
    Burgundy Books, 2014, (3Q) (2014)
    Burgundy Books, 2015, (2Q) (2015)
    Burgundy Books, 2015, (3Q) (2015)
    Burgundy Books, 2016, (1Q) (2016)
    Burgundy Books, 2016, (3Q) (2016)
    Burgundy Books, 2014, (4Q) (2014)
61. A Report on Economic Conditions in the Memphis Zone
    Burgundy Books, 2016, (2Q)
    Also in Burgundy Books, 2016, (3Q) (2016)
    Burgundy Books, 2014, (2Q) (2014)
    Burgundy Books, 2014, (3Q) (2014)
    Burgundy Books, 2016, (1Q) (2016)
    Burgundy Books, 2015, (2Q) (2015)
    Burgundy Books, 2015, (3Q) (2015)
    Burgundy Books, 2014, (1Q) (2014)
    Burgundy Books, 2014, (4Q) (2014)
    Burgundy Books, 2015, (1Q) (2015)
62. A Report on Economic Conditions in the St. Louis Zone
    Burgundy Books, 2016, (3Q)
    Also in Burgundy Books, 2014, (2Q) (2014)
    Burgundy Books, 2016, (2Q) (2016)
    Burgundy Books, 2015, (1Q) (2015)
    Burgundy Books, 2014, (1Q) (2014)
    Burgundy Books, 2014, (4Q) (2014)
    Burgundy Books, 2015, (2Q) (2015)
    Burgundy Books, 2015, (3Q) (2015)
    Burgundy Books, 2016, (1Q) (2016)
    Burgundy Books, 2014, (3Q) (2014)
63. After a Start That Was Lackluster, the Economy Improves
    The Regional Economist, 2016, (October)
64. Despite Crosscurrents, Economy Is Showing Signs of Strength
    The Regional Economist, 2016, (Jan)
65. Despite Weakness, Economic Expansion Marks Seven Years
    The Regional Economist, 2016, (July)
66. Focus on Low Real Interest Rate Might Be Misplaced
    The Regional Economist, 2016, (Jan) View citations (3)
67. Modest Improvement in Economy Expected over Rest of the Year
    The Regional Economist, 2016, (April)
68. Three Challenges to Central Bank Orthodoxy
    Review, 2016, 98, (1), 1-16
    Also in Business Economics, 2015, 50, (4), 191-199 (2015) View citations (1)
69. Tracking the U.S. Economy with Nowcasts
    The Regional Economist, 2016, (April)

2015

70. A Measure of Price Pressures
    Review, 2015, 97, (1), 25-52 View citations (8)
71. Are Oil Price Declines Good for the Economy?
    Economic Synopses, 2015, (3)
72. Faster Real GDP Growth during Recoveries Tends To Be Associated with Growth of Jobs in \\"Low-Paying\\" Industries
    The Regional Economist, 2015, (Jan)
73. How Accurate Are Measures of Long-Term Inflation Expectations?
    Economic Synopses, 2015, (9) View citations (5)
74. Introducing the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measure
    Economic Synopses, 2015, (25)
75. National Overview: Growth Is Modest in GDP but Strong in Labor Markets
    The Regional Economist, 2015, (April)
76. National Overview: Growth Is Resilient in the Midst of Uncertainty
    The Regional Economist, 2015, (Oct)
77. National Overview: Pace of Growth Is Expected To Quicken
    The Regional Economist, 2015, (Jan)
78. National Overview: The U.S. Economy Stumbles Out of the Gate—Again
    The Regional Economist, 2015, (July)

2014

79. A Spring-loaded economy?
    The Regional Economist, 2014
80. A guide to tracking the U.S. economy
    Review, 2014, 96, (1), 35-54 View citations (1)
81. How negative is negative real GDP growth?
    Economic Synopses, 2014, (17)
82. Optimism Prevails as GDP Snaps Back from Q1 Decline
    The Regional Economist, 2014
83. Recovery seems to have finally taken root
    The Regional Economist, 2014
84. Signs of Improving Labor Market Conditions
    Economic Synopses, 2014, (10)
85. Weather throws a cold blanket on the U.S. economy
    The Regional Economist, 2014

2013

86. Economic recovery—slow and steady, or full steam ahead?
    The Regional Economist, 2013, (October)
87. Fiscal uncertainty clouds outlook for growth
    The Regional Economist, 2013, (Jan)
88. Mixed signals, but moving forward
    The Regional Economist, 2013, (July)
89. Signs point to stronger growth in GDP this year
    The Regional Economist, 2013, (Apr)
90. The Fed’s strategy for exiting from unconventional policy: key principles, potential challenges
    The Regional Economist, 2013, (October) View citations (1)
91. U.S. manufacturing and the importance of international trade: it’s not what you think
    Review, 2013, (Jan), 27-50 View citations (6)
92. Uncertainty and the economy
    The Regional Economist, 2013, (Apr) View citations (4)

2012

93. Accounting for U.S. growth: is there a new normal?
    The Regional Economist, 2012
94. Disentangling diverse measures: a survey of financial stress indexes
    Review, 2012, (Sep), 369-398 View citations (111)
95. Economy still growing albeit at a tepid pace
    The Regional Economist, 2012, (Oct), 22
96. Federal Reserve lending to troubled banks during the financial crisis, 2007-2010
    Review, 2012, 94, (May), 221-242 View citations (3)
97. Follow regional agricultural financial conditions with new quarterly survey
    Central Banker, 2012, (Fall)
98. How Does the FOMC Learn About Economic Revolutions? Evidence from the New Economy Era, 1994–2001
    Business Economics, 2012, 47, (1), 27-56 View citations (3)
99. How good are the government’s deficit and debt projections and should we care?
    Review, 2012, 94, (Jan), 21-39 View citations (9)
100. How well do initial claims forecast employment growth over the business cycle and over time?
     Economic Synopses, 2012 View citations (2)
101. Signs point to stronger real GDP growth in 2012 than last year's 1.6
     The Regional Economist, 2012, (Jul)
102. The U.S. economy should strengthen as year goes by
     The Regional Economist, 2012, (Apr)
103. The economy should be able to avoid a recession in 2012
     The Regional Economist, 2012, (Jan)

2011

104. Are small businesses the biggest producers of jobs?
     The Regional Economist, 2011, (Apr), 8-9
105. DO OIL SHOCKS DRIVE BUSINESS CYCLES? SOME U.S. AND INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE
     Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2011, 15, (S3), 498-517 View citations (41)
     See also Working Paper Do oil shocks drive business cycles? some U.S. and international evidence, Working Papers (2010) View citations (21) (2010)
106. Forecasters expect solid growth, low inflation in 2011
     The Regional Economist, 2011, (Jan), 11
107. Initial claims and employment growth: are we at the threshold?
     Economic Synopses, 2011 View citations (2)
108. New data elevate uncertainty about the outlook on the economy
     The Regional Economist, 2011, (Oct), 26
109. Recovery continues despite new risks, old problems
     The Regional Economist, 2011, (July), 21
110. Tax rates and revenue since the 1970s
     Economic Synopses, 2011
111. The economy continues to strengthen, but risks remain
     The Regional Economist, 2011, (Apr), 17
112. The federal debt: too little revenue or too much spending
     Economic Synopses, 2011
113. The federal debt: what’s the source of the increase in spending?
     Economic Synopses, 2011
114. Using Brent and WTI oil prices to predict gasoline prices
     Economic Synopses, 2011 View citations (1)

2010

115. Commercial real estate: a drag for some banks but maybe not for U.S. economy
     The Regional Economist, 2010, (Jan), 10-11 View citations (1)
116. Economy is nearing cruising altitude
     The Regional Economist, 2010, (Jul), 23
117. FOMC learning and productivity growth (1985-2003): a reading of the record
     Review, 2010, 92, (Mar), 129-154 View citations (5)
118. Flight to safety and U.S. Treasury securities
     The Regional Economist, 2010, (Jul), 18-19 View citations (15)
119. Inflation may be the next dragon to slay
     The Regional Economist, 2010, (Jan), 4-9 View citations (2)
120. Is the Fed’s definition of price stability evolving?
     Economic Synopses, 2010
121. Low interest rates have benefits … and costs
     The Regional Economist, 2010, (Oct), 6-7 View citations (1)
122. Measuring financial market stress
     Economic Synopses, 2010 View citations (71)
123. Signs point toward another jobless recovery
     The Regional Economist, 2010, (Apr), 17
124. The economy looks for its second wind
     The Regional Economist, 2010, (Oct), 17
125. The recovery might be a 98-pound weakling
     The Regional Economist, 2010, (Jan), 19

2009

126. Dating the end of the recession: evaluating the economic indicators
     Economic Synopses, 2009
127. Digging into the infrastructure debate
     The Regional Economist, 2009, (Jul), 4-9
128. In Fed we trust: new book focuses on the Fed in the eye of the storm
     The Regional Economist, 2009, (Oct), 21-22
129. Man the lifeboats!
     The Regional Economist, 2009, (Jan), 19
130. Nearing the bottom, or digging a deeper hole?
     The Regional Economist, 2009, (Apr), 23
131. Putting the financial crisis and lending activity in a broader context
     Monetary Trends, 2009, (Mar)
132. Recession or depression?
     Economic Synopses, 2009
133. Recession or depression? part II
     Economic Synopses, 2009
134. The storm clouds begin to depart
     The Regional Economist, 2009, (Jul), 19

2008

135. An expanded look at employment
     National Economic Trends, 2008, (Mar)
136. Another conundrum?
     Monetary Trends, 2008, (Oct)
137. Can you hear me now?
     Monetary Trends, 2008, (Jan)
138. Ethanol: economic gain or drain?
     The Regional Economist, 2008, (Jul), 4-9 View citations (1)
139. Forecasting inflation and output: comparing data-rich models with simple rules
     Review, 2008, 90, (May), 175-192 View citations (12)
     See also Working Paper Forecasting inflation and output: comparing data-rich models with simple rules, Working Papers (2006) View citations (6) (2006)
140. Oil and the U.S. macroeconomy: an update and a simple forecasting exercise
     Review, 2008, 90, (Sep), 505-516 View citations (9)
     See also Working Paper Oil and the U.S. macroeconomy: an update and a simple forecasting exercise, Working Papers (2008) View citations (4) (2008)
141. Skirting the edge?
     The Regional Economist, 2008, (Apr), 17
142. Threats to the economy don't let up
     The Regional Economist, 2008, (Oct), 17
143. Triple whammy fuels economic doubts
     The Regional Economist, 2008, (Jul), 17

2007

144. As boomers slow down, so might the economy
     The Regional Economist, 2007, (Jul), 12-13
145. Below-trend growth is predicted for most of 2007
     The Regional Economist, 2007, (Jan), 18
146. Housing woes weigh heavily on the economy
     The Regional Economist, 2007, (Oct), 18
147. How well does employment predict output?
     Review, 2007, 89, (Sep), 433-446 View citations (1)
148. Recession rumblings
     National Economic Trends, 2007, (May)
149. The economy continues to take a punch
     The Regional Economist, 2007, (Jul), 18
150. Trading barbs: a primer on the globalization debate
     The Regional Economist, 2007, (Oct), 4-9
151. Will the U.S. economy find its groove this year?
     The Regional Economist, 2007, (Apr), 18

2006

152. Are two employment surveys better than one?
     National Economic Trends, 2006, (Nov)
153. Despite setbacks, the U.S. economy steams forward
     The Regional Economist, 2006, (Jan), 18
154. Economy overcomes hurricanes, rising energy prices
     The Regional Economist, 2006, (Apr), 18-18
155. Electricity: the next energy jolt?
     The Regional Economist, 2006, (Oct), 4-9
156. Gauging the size of today's price shocks
     National Economic Trends, 2006, (Jan)
157. Macroeconomic news and real interest rates
     Review, 2006, 88, (Mar), 133-144 View citations (4)
158. Rising natural gas prices and real economic activity
     Review, 2006, 88, (Nov), 511-526 View citations (15)
159. Survey says families are digging deeper into debt
     The Regional Economist, 2006, (Jul), 12-13 View citations (1)
160. The 1990s acceleration in labor productivity: causes and measurement
     Review, 2006, 88, (May), 181-202 View citations (9)
161. U.S. maneuvers through choppy waters
     The Regional Economist, 2006, (Jul), 18

2005

162. Battle at bond bluff: forecasters vs. financial markets
     National Economic Trends, 2005, (Jun) View citations (1)
163. Do we have a saving crisis?
     The Regional Economist, 2005, (Jul), 4-9
164. Economists expect solid economic growth this year
     The Regional Economist, 2005, (Jan), 19
165. Has monetary policy been more accommodative than previously believed?
     Monetary Trends, 2005, (Oct)
166. Oil price volatility and U.S. macroeconomic activity
     Review, 2005, 87, (Nov), 669-84 View citations (126)
167. Reading inflation expectations from CPI futures
     National Economic Trends, 2005, (Feb)

2004

168. A jobless recovery with more people working?
     The Regional Economist, 2004, (Apr), 10-11 View citations (1)
169. Economy finally takes off
     The Regional Economist, 2004, (Jan.), 19
170. Fear of hell might fire up the economy
     The Regional Economist, 2004, (Jul), 10-11 View citations (1)
171. Mind the gap: measuring actual vs. potential output
     National Economic Trends, 2004, (Jan)
172. Monetary policy actions, macroeconomic data releases, and inflation expectations
     Review, 2004, 86, (May), 9-22 View citations (15)
173. Ringing in the new year with an investment bust?
     National Economic Trends, 2004, (Dec)
174. The economy gets back on track, but once again leaves many workers behind
     The Regional Economist, 2004, (Jan.), 4-9
175. The party heats up
     The Regional Economist, 2004, (Apr), 19
176. Waiting on the Fed
     The Regional Economist, 2004, (Jul), 19

2003

177. Big government the comeback kid?
     The Regional Economist, 2003, (Jan), 4-9 View citations (2)
178. Slow recovery remains puzzling
     The Regional Economist, 2003, (Jul), 19
179. The 2001 recession: how was it different and what developments may have caused it?
     Review, 2003, 85, (Sep), 23-38 View citations (8)
180. The U.S. economy: between Iraq and a hard place
     The Regional Economist, 2003, (Apr), 19
181. Waiting for the investment boom? It might be a while
     National Economic Trends, 2003, (May)
182. Was Y2K behind the business investment boom and bust?
     Review, 2003, 85, (Jan), 31-42 View citations (2)

2002

183. A longer road to recovery?
     The Regional Economist, 2002, (Jan.), 19
184. Die another day? budget deficits and interest rates
     National Economic Trends, 2002, (Dec) View citations (3)
185. Does a mild recession imply a weak recovery?
     National Economic Trends, 2002, (Apr)
186. Full steam ahead?
     The Regional Economist, 2002, (Apr.), 19-19
187. Government budget surpluses head south: will they come back?
     The Regional Economist, 2002, (Apr.), 12-13
188. Recovery isn't as easy as in the past
     The Regional Economist, 2002, (Jul.), 19-19
189. Unemployment insurance claims and economic activity
     Review, 2002, 84, (May), 15-28 View citations (8)

2001

190. Heavyweight of productivity: does the microchip match up?
     The Regional Economist, 2001, (Jul), 4-9
191. Rising oil prices and economic turmoil: must they always go hand in hand?
     The Regional Economist, 2001, (Jan), 4-9
192. The expected federal budget surplus: how much confidence should the public and policymakers place in the projections?
     Review, 2001, 83, (Mar), 11-24 View citations (8)
193. The switch to NAICS
     National Economic Trends, 2001, (Aug)
194. Whither the New Economy?
     National Economic Trends, 2001, (Sep)
195. Will California short-circuit the expansion?
     National Economic Trends, 2001, (Feb)

2000

196. Agriculture outcomes and monetary policy actions: Kissin' cousins?
     Review, 2000, 82, (May), 1-12 View citations (3)
197. Available labor supply
     National Economic Trends, 2000, (Feb) View citations (1)
198. The economic outlook for 2000: bulls on parade?
     National Economic Trends, 2000, (Jan)

1999

199. An oasis of prosperity: solely an American phenomenon?
     The Regional Economist, 1999, (Jul), 4-9
200. Is the bloom off the rose for Eighth District farmers?
     The Regional Economist, 1999, (Apr), 12-13
201. Models and monetary policy: more science than art?
     The Regional Economist, 1999, (Jan), 10-11
202. Putting business software purchases into the national accounts
     National Economic Trends, 1999, (Nov) View citations (3)
203. The NAIRU: tailor-made for the Fed?
     The Regional Economist, 1999, (Oct) View citations (1)

1998

204. A brave new economic world? the productivity puzzle
     The Regional Economist, 1998, (Jan), 4-9
205. Enhancing future retirement income through 401(k)s
     The Regional Economist, 1998, (Oct), 4-9
206. How important will 401(k) plans be to baby boomers?
     National Economic Trends, 1998, (Nov)
207. How susceptible is the United States to the Asian flu?
     The Regional Economist, 1998, (Apr), 10-11

1997

208. Assessing the generational gap in future living standards through generational accounting
     The Regional Economist, 1997, (Apr), 5-9
209. Critiquing the consumer price index
     The Regional Economist, 1997, (Jul), 10-11
210. Is deflation coming?
     National Economic Trends, 1997, (Nov)
211. What's up down on the farm?
     The Regional Economist, 1997, (Jan), 12-13

1996

212. A recipe for monetary policy credibility
     The Regional Economist, 1996, (Oct), 10-11
213. Are some agricultural banks too agricultural?
     Review, 1996, 78, (Jan), 23-36 View citations (8)
214. Chained, rested and ready: the new and improved GDP
     The Regional Economist, 1996, (Jan), 10-11 View citations (1)
215. District automotive sector flourishing
     The Regional Economist, 1996, (Apr), 12-13
216. Tax man, heal thyself
     The Regional Economist, 1996, (Jul), 5-9

1995

217. A Fed focused on price stability: the benefits of a single target
     The Regional Economist, 1995, (Apr), 10-11
218. A fiscal devolution: can state and local governments measure up?
     The Regional Economist, 1995, (Oct), 4-9
219. Deregulation or Reregulation of Agricultural Banks
     American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1995, 77, (3), 757-761 View citations (3)
220. District economy takes off
     The Regional Economist, 1995, (Jul), 12-13
221. The fixation on international competitiveness
     The Regional Economist, 1995, (Jan), 4-9 View citations (2)

1994

222. Can agriculture rebound this year?
     The Regional Economist, 1994
223. Commodity price indexes: can they predict inflation?
     The Regional Economist, 1994, (Jul), 10-11
224. District economic update: will the sailing remain smooth?
     The Regional Economist, 1994, (Oct), 12-13
225. EFFECTS ON INTEREST RATES OF IMMEDIATELY RELEASING FOMC DIRECTIVES
     Contemporary Economic Policy, 1994, 12, (4), 79-91 View citations (5)
226. The economics of natural disasters
     The Regional Economist, 1994, (Apr), 5-9 View citations (13)

1993

227. IOU's from the edge: should we worry about the budget deficit?
     The Regional Economist, 1993, (Oct), 10-12
228. Leaning against the wind: does the Fed engage in countercyclical monetary policy?
     The Regional Economist, 1993, (Jan), 10-11
229. Restructuring and economic growth: taking the long-term view
     The Regional Economist, 1993 View citations (1)
230. Some upbeat trends in District employment
     The Regional Economist, 1993, (Apr), 12-13

1992

231. The recent credit crunch: the neglected dimensions
     Review, 1992, (Sep), 18-36 View citations (3)