Strategic Unpredictability: An Analysis of the Madman Theory in the Context of Trump’s Leadership Model

Hasan Saltuk Durak and Mehmet Fatih KANOÄžLU

Fiscaoeconomia, 2026, issue 1

Abstract: This study aims to examine the Madman Theory, which is based on the concept of strategic unpredictability, through the lens of Donald Trump's leadership style during his presidential term. The central research question explores how Trump's deliberately unpredictable behavior functioned as a leadership strategy, its effects on internal and external dynamics, and its ethical implications. A qualitative research design was adopted, and Trump's Twitter posts from the 2017–2021 period were analyzed using content analysis methodology. The data were categorized with a focus on policies toward North Korea and Iran, Middle East interventions, changes in national security advisors, and general foreign policy. The findings indicate that while Trump's unpredictability strategy provided short-term deterrence and negotiation advantages, it eroded organizational trust, violated psychological contracts, and fostered a toxic leadership climate in the long run. In conclusion, strategic unpredictability, despite offering temporary tactical benefits, poses significant risks to organizational sustainability and ethical leadership. This study contributes to the literature by adapting the theory to an organizational context and offers practical implications for leadership development and policy-making processes.

Keywords: Unpredictability; Madman Theory; Trump’s Leadership Style (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B41 M12 Z13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fis:journl:260130

DOI: 10.25295/fsecon.1778132

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