Forecasting U.S. Presidential Elections: A Brief Review

Randall J. Jones, Jr. and Alfred G. Cuzán

Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2008, issue 10, 29-34

Abstract: With the November 2008 U.S. presidential election looming, Randall and Alfred describe the enduring forecasting models that have been created by economists and political scientists for predicting the results of this quadrennial ritual. The most stable models since 1996 have consistently forecast the election winner, with an average error of less than 3%. While not all of the players have issued their forecasts for this year’s final vote, the models suggest that the outlook for the Republican Party is negative. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008

Date: 2008
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2008:i:10:p:29-34

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