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Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting

2005 - 2024

From International Institute of Forecasters
Contact information at EDIRC.

Bibliographic data for series maintained by Michael Gilliland ().

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2024, issue 73

Failing to Pay Attention to Error: Our Greatest Error pp. 5-12 Downloads
Steve Morlidge
A Critical Evaluation of the Assumptions of Forecast Value Added pp. 13-23 Downloads
Conor Doherty
Commentary: FVA: The Gold Standard for Collaborative Forecasting pp. 24-25 Downloads
Jeff Baker
Commentary: Using FVA the Right Way pp. 26-27 Downloads
Stefan de Kok
Commentary: Apologia pro Forecast Value Added pp. 28-29 Downloads
Igor Gusakov
Commentary: FVA Remains Relevant and Valuable pp. 30-30 Downloads
Marina Sologubova
Commentary: How to Properly Leverage FVA pp. 31-32 Downloads
Nicolas Vandeput
LLMs and Foundational Models: Not (Yet) as Good as Hoped pp. 33-38 Downloads
Christoph Bergmeir
Fordyce discusses multiple linear regression in Part 2 of his tutorial series "Linear Regression with a Time Series View." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024 pp. 39-45 Downloads
Ken Fordyce
The Accuracy of Prediction Markets pp. 48-53 Downloads
Thomas Wolfram
Book Review: Judgment in Predictive Analytics, edited by Matthias Seifert pp. 54-57 Downloads
Robert Fildes
Book Review: The Age of Prediction: Algorithms, AI, and the Shifting Shadows of Risk by Igor Tulchinsky and Christopher E. Mason pp. 58-60 Downloads
Ira Sohn
Spotlight: Interview with Eric Stellwagen pp. 61-62 Downloads
Foresight Staff
Interactions in Forecasting pp. 63-64 Downloads
Stephan Kolassa

2024, issue 72

J. Scott Armstrong (1937 - 2023): Iconoclast and Champion of Science for Practical Purposes pp. 5-7 Downloads
Kesten Green
Lessons from a Mentor and Friend pp. 8-8 Downloads
Andreas Graefe
Scott Armstrong's Scientific Legacy pp. 9-9 Downloads
Arch Woodside
The Forecaster's Evaluation Dilemma pp. 10-14 Downloads
Malte Tichy
Combining Probability Predictions pp. 15-20 Downloads
Ville A. Satop??
Estimating Predictive Probability of Success pp. 21-28 Downloads
Shaun Comfort
Accuracy vs. Runtime with Multiple Seasonalities pp. 29-32 Downloads
Stephan Kolassa
Linear Regression with a Time Series View, Part 1: Simple Linear Regression pp. 35-39 Downloads
Ken Fordyce
How Well Can Social Scientists Forecast Societal Change? pp. 40-46 Downloads
Igor Grossmann, Christoph Bergmeir and Peter Slattery
A Case for a More Decision-centric IBP pp. 47-51 Downloads
Niels van Hove
How Decision Intelligence Integrates Forecasting, AI, and Data into Complex Decisions pp. 52-57 Downloads
Lorien Pratt, David Roberts, Nadine Malcolm, Brian Fisher, Katie Barnhill, Daniela Jones and Michael Kudenov
Book Review: Sales & Operations Planning -An Executive Update by Robert A. Stahl pp. 58-59 Downloads
Patrick Bower
Book Review: Power and Prediction: The Disruptive Economics of Artificial Intelligence, by Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb pp. 60-63 Downloads
Ira Sohn
Book Review: Demand Forecasting for Executives and Professionals, by Stephan Kolassa, Bahman Rostami-Tabar, and Enno Siemsen pp. 64-65 Downloads
Simon Spavound
Spotlight: Interview with Sevvandi Kandanaarachchi pp. 66-67 Downloads
Foresight Staff
Spotlight: Interview with Ruben Crevits pp. 68 Downloads
Foresight Staff
In Pursuit of Consumption-Based Forecasting pp. 69-71 Downloads
Charles Chase and Kenneth B. Kahn

2023, issue 71

20 Years of FVA: A Critical Retrospective pp. 10-17 Downloads
Michael Gilliland
Enhancements to the Forecast Value Added Framework pp. 18-24 Downloads
Jeff Baker
A Critical Review of Forecast Value Added pp. 25-27 Downloads
Stefan de Kok
Two Process Changes Based on FVA Findings pp. 28-28 Downloads
Fazlur Rahman
The Potential of FVA for Driving Process Improvement pp. 29-30 Downloads
Marina Sologubova
Judgmental Adjustments in Demand Planning: Their Motivation and Success pp. 31-37 Downloads
Robert Fildes, Paul Goodwin and Shari De Baets
The Effective Use of External Signals and Human Inputs pp. 40-41 Downloads
Anne-Flore Elard
The Need for Risk Management in Forecasting Software pp. 42-47 Downloads
Johann Robette
Entering the Golden Age of Mixed Frequency Forecasting pp. 48-49 Downloads
Gareth Thomas
A Glimpse into the Future of Forecasting Software pp. 50-54 Downloads
Spiros Potamitis, Michele Trovero and Joe Katz
How Will Generative AI Influence Forecasting Software? pp. 55-61 Downloads
Michele Trovero and Spiros Potamitis
What Do We Learn from Forecasting Software Surveys? pp. 62-65 Downloads
Oliver Schaer, Ivan Svetunkov and Robert Fildes
Book Review- Escape from Model Land by Erica Thompson pp. 66-68 Downloads
Robert Fildes
The Scientific Method: A Guide to Finding Useful Knowledge by J. Scott Armstrong & Kesten C. Green pp. 69-70 Downloads
George Karamatzanis and Kostas Nikolopoulos
Spotlight: Shari De Baets pp. 71-72 Downloads
Foresight Interviewer
Spotlight: Joe McConnell pp. 73-74 Downloads
Foresight Interviewer
Sustainability in Forecasting pp. 75-76 Downloads
Stephan Kolassa
Forecasts for Infrastructure -A Crisis Confronting the Economy pp. 77-79 Downloads
Ira Sohn

2023, issue 70

Common Pitfalls and Better Practices in Forecast Evaluation for Data Scientists pp. 5-12 Downloads
Christoph Bergmeir
Commentary: A Practitioner's View on the Common Pitfalls pp. 13-14 Downloads
Zeynep Erkin Baz
Commentary: Idealism - Make Way for Realism pp. 15-16 Downloads
Shari De Baets
Cross-Learning with Short Seasonal Time Series pp. 17-23 Downloads
Huijing Chen, John Boylan and Ivan Svetunkov
Commentary: PICS, or, Why Stop at PIC? pp. 24-25 Downloads
Stefan de Kok
Commentary: Exponential Smoothing in the Spotlight Again pp. 26-27 Downloads
Malvina Marchese
The Limitations of Forecasts and Plans on Decision Making pp. 28-30 Downloads
Niels van Hove
The Organizational Politics of Forecasting Revisited: Collaborative Budget Forecasting Meets the COVID-19 Pandemic pp. 31-37 Downloads
Elaine Deschamps
Book Review of Change & Chance Embraced and Four P's in a Pod, by Hans Levenbach pp. 40-42 Downloads
Sara Barradas
Book Review of Demand Forecasting Best Practices by Nicolas Vandeput pp. 43-44 Downloads
Stephan Kolassa
Book Review of Megathreats: Ten Dangerous Trends that Imperil Our Future, and How to Survive Them, by Nouriel Roubini pp. 45-48 Downloads
Ira Sohn
The 10 Lies Told in Consensus Meetings pp. 49-52 Downloads
Patrick Bower and Chip Gretok
What Is Wrong with Demand Planning Software? pp. 53-55 Downloads
Igor Gusakov
Spotlight: Mark Chockalingam pp. 56-57 Downloads
Foresight Staff
Spotlight: Malvina Marchese pp. 58-59 Downloads
Foresight Staff
Forecasting: A Critical Enabler of the Circular Economy pp. 60-61 Downloads
Thanos Goltsos and Aris Syntetos
All Hail the Flatline Forecast! pp. 62-63 Downloads
Stephan Kolassa
The Technological Limits to Forecasting pp. 64-65 Downloads
Malte Tichy
Minitutorial: Forecasting New Product Adoption Using S-Curves pp. 66-67 Downloads
Lawrence Vanston

2023, issue 69

Time to Retire the MAPE pp. 5-12 Downloads
Malte Tichy
Commentary: How We Deal with Zero Actuals Has a Huge Impact on the MAPE and Optimal Forecasts pp. 13-16 Downloads
Stephan Kolassa
Commentary: MAPE, What Else? pp. 17-19 Downloads
Flavio von Rickenbach
Should We Always Use Forecasts when Facing the Future? pp. 20-22 Downloads
Paul Goodwin
Commentary: To Forecast or Not to Forecast? pp. 23-24 Downloads
Fotios Petropoulos
Commentary: When to Be Careful about Forecasting pp. 25-27 Downloads
Stephan Kolassa
There Is More Uncertainty than Just Demand pp. 28-29 Downloads
Argiris Mokios
Supply Chain Forecasting - Is the Juice Worth the Squeeze? pp. 30-31 Downloads
Nico Sprotti
You Think You're Measuring Accuracy? pp. 32-33 Downloads
Stefan De Kok
Be Kind pp. 34-35 Downloads
Patrick Bower
Policy Predictability: The Case of Forward Guidance by Central Banks pp. 39-42 Downloads
Marcin Klucznik and Jakub Rybacki
Long-term Projections of Water Supply and Demand pp. 43-47 Downloads
Hua Xie and Claudia Ringler
Reducing Forecast Instability with Global Deep Learning Models pp. 49-55 Downloads
Jente Van Belle, Ruben Crevits and Wouter Verbeke
Spotlight: Elaine Deschamps pp. 56-57 Downloads
Foresight Staff
Spotlight: Niles Perera pp. 58-58 Downloads
Foresight Staff
How to Increase Forecast Accuracy pp. 59-60 Downloads
Stephan Kolassa
The Impact of Large Language Models like ChatGPT on Forecasting pp. 61-62 Downloads
Spyros Makridakis, Fotios Petropoulos and Yanfei Kang
Comparing Artificial Intelligence and Nonlinear Regression Models: The Issue of Test Design pp. 64-65 Downloads
Gordon Reikard
How Overfitting Destroys Forecast Quality pp. 66-66 Downloads
Steve Morlidge
RAE Measures Value Added and Allows for Forecastability pp. 67-67 Downloads
Steve Morlidge

2023, issue 68

Does Improved Forecast Accuracy Translate to Business Value? pp. 12-19 Downloads
Johann Robette
Using Simulation to Determine When Forecast Accuracy Matters pp. 20-24 Downloads
Stephan Kolassa
Increased Bullwhip in Retail: A Side Effect of Improving Forecast Accuracy with More Data? pp. 25-30 Downloads
Arnoud P. Wellens, Robert N. Boute and Maximiliano Udenio
Measuring the Cost of Forecast Error pp. 31-35 Downloads
Steve Morlidge
Why Does Forecast Accuracy Matter? pp. 36-39 Downloads
John Boylan and Aris Syntetos
Better Forecasts or More Appropriate Stock Control Policies? pp. 40-44 Downloads
Evangelos Theodorou and Evangelos Spilioti
Accuracy and Usefulness in Applied Forecasting pp. 45-46 Downloads
Sinisa Vukovic
Why Do We Talk about Forecast Accuracy Measures (So Much)? pp. 50-51 Downloads
Patrick Bower
A New Approach to Business Planning during Crises pp. 52-56 Downloads
Niels van Hove
Commentary on "A New Approach to Business Planning during Crises" pp. 57-59 Downloads
Vaishal Patel, George Monokroussos and Jason Chen
Spotlight: Oyebimpe Adeniji pp. 60-60 Downloads
Foresight Interviewer
Spotlight: Anne-Flore Elard pp. 61-61 Downloads
Foresight Interviewer
Business Forecasting: Issues, Current State, and Future Direction pp. 62-64 Downloads
Simon Clarke
Minitutorial: Forecast Value Added pp. 65-65 Downloads
Michael Gilliland
Minitutorial: The Pinball Loss for Quantile Forecasts pp. 66-67 Downloads
Stephan Kolassa
Page updated 2024-06-12