Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting

2005 - 2025

From International Institute of Forecasters
Contact information at EDIRC.
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Book Review of Super Crunchers by Ian Ayres pp. 4-5: Roy Batchelor
Can We Obtain Valid Benchmarks from Published Surveys of Forecast Accuracy? pp. 6-14: Stephen Kolassa
Measuring Improvement in Forecast Accuracy: A Case Study pp. 15-20: Robert Rieg
Commentary on Benchmarking pp. 21-23: Teresa McCarthy, Donna Davis, Susan Golicic and John Mentzer
Commentary on Benchmarking pp. 24-25: Jim Hoover
Overcoming Challenges in Operational Forecasting Projects pp. 26-36: Ian Watson-Jones
Commentaries on Overcoming Challenges in Operational Forecasting Projects pp. 37-40: Patrick Wader and Mark A. Moon
Regression Model Forecasts of the U. S. Presidential Election pp. 41-42: Randall Jones, Jr. and Alfred Cuzan
Software Review of Forecast Pro Unlimited: An Off-the-Shelf Solution for Large-Volume Forecasting pp. 43-49: Ulrich Kusters and Janko Thyson

The Future of Everything: The Science of Prediction pp. 5-7: Paul Fields
Looking at Tomorrow Today: The What, Why, and How of Futuring for Forecasters pp. 9-14: Roy Pearson
Lessons Learned: Reflections from 25 Years as a Forecasting Consultant pp. 15-22: Antonio García-Ferrer
Life-Cycle Forecasting for New Products: The HP Approach to Forecasting Printer Demand pp. 23-27: Jerry Shan, Matthew Reimann and Fereydoon Safai
Forecasting U.S. Presidential Elections: A Brief Review pp. 29-34: Randall J. Jones, Jr. and Alfred G. Cuzán
A Quick Tour of Tourism Forecasting pp. 35-37: Paul Goodwin
Should We Define Forecast Error as E = F - A Or E = A - F? pp. 38-40: Kesten Green and Len Tashman

Thomas H. Davenport and Jeanne G. Harris’s Competing on Analytics: The New Science of Winning pp. 5-7: Roy Batchelor
Predicting the Demand for New Products pp. 8-10: Paul Goodwin
The Value of Information Sharing in the Retail Supply Chain: Two Case Studies pp. 12-17: Tonya Boone and Ram Ganeshan
Innovations in Sales Forecasting for Large-Scale Retailers pp. 18-24: Bruce Andrews, James Bennett, Lindsey Howe, Brooks Newkirk and Joseph Ogrodowczyk
Prediction Markets – A Guide to Practical Adoption in the Pharmaceutical Industry pp. 25-29: Carol Gebert
Prediction Markets – Defining Events and Motivating Participation pp. 30-32: Andreas Graefe
A Primer on Prediction Markets pp. 33-35: Joe Miles
Monte Carlo Simulation/Risk Analysis on a Spreadsheet: Review of Three Software Packages pp. 36-41: Sam Sugiyama
“Been There, Done That”: Perils, Pitfalls, and Promises of Long-Term Projections pp. 43-48: Ira Sohn

Good and Bad Judgment in Forecasting: Lessons from Four Companies pp. 5-10: Robert Fildes and Paul Goodwin
A Guide to Delphi pp. 11-16: Gene Rowe
Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared pp. 17-20: Kesten Green, J. Armstrong and Andreas Graefe
Key Assumptions in Calculating the Cost of Forecast Error. A commentary on Peter Catt’s article, Assessing the Cost of Forecast Error, in Issue 7 of Foresight pp. 22-24: John Boylan
Use of the Normal Distribution in Calculating the Cost of Forecast Error pp. 25-26: Thomas R. Willemain
Supply Risk and Costing Challenges pp. 26-27: Michael E. Smith
Lost Sales and Customer Service pp. 28: Scott Roy
Reply to “Cost of Forecast Error” Commentaries pp. 29-30: Peter Catt
How to Project Patient Persistency pp. 31-35: Ka Lok Lee, Peter Fader and Bruce Hardie
The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2008 pp. 36-40: Allan J. Lichtman
Bayesian Forecasting Methods for Short Time Series pp. 41-44: Enrique de Alba and Manuel Mendoza
Book Review of Mirror, Mirror, Who’s the Best Forecaster of Them All? (by Michael F. Bryan and Linsey Molloy of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) pp. 45-46: Bill Bassin

Assessing the Cost of Forecast Error: A Practical Example pp. 5-10: Peter Catt
An Expanded Prediction-Realization Diagram for Assessing Forecast Errors pp. 11-16: Roy Pearson
Use Scaled Errors Instead of Percentage Errors in Forecast Evaluations pp. 17-22: Lauge Valentin
S&OP, Forecasting, and the Knowledge-Creating Company pp. 23-27: John Mello and Terry Esper
Decision-Directed Forecasting for Major Disruptions: The Impact of 9/11 on Las Vegas Gaming Revenues pp. 29-35: Stephen Custer and Don Miller
How to Get Good Forecasts from Bad Data pp. 36-40: Ellen Bonnell
The Forecaster as Leader of the Forecasting Process pp. 41-44: James Borneman
Forecasting Software: A Progress Report for the First Seven Years of the 21st Century pp. 45-48: Jim Hoover
Book Review of Forecasting the Retail Supply Chain, by Andre Martin, Mike Doherty, and Jeff Harrop pp. 49-51: Carolyn Allmon
Supermarket Forecasting: Check Out Three New Approaches pp. 53-55: Paul Goodwin

Confessions of a Pragmatic Forecaster pp. 3-10: Chris Chatfield
Minimum Sample Size requirements for Seasonal Forecasting Models pp. 12-15: Rob Hyndman and Andrey V. Kostenko
Forecasting Short Seasonal Time Series Using Aggregate and Analogous Series pp. 16-20: Michael Leonard
Seasonality Shrinkage Procedures for Small Samples pp. 21-23: Dan Williams
Constant vs. Changing Seasonality pp. 24-25: Philip Hans Franses
Hot New Research: Recent Studies on Forecasting Know-How, Training, and Information Sharing pp. 26-28: Paul Goodwin
Forecast Uncertainty and Monte Carlo Simulation pp. 29-37: Sam Sugiyama
Book Review of Kenneth Kahn's New Product Forecasting: An Applied Approach pp. 38-39: Steven Schnaars
Advantages of the MAD/Mean Ratio over the MAPE pp. 40-43: Stephan Kolassa and Wolfgang Schütz
Forecasting the 2006 Democratic Takeover of the U.S. House of Representatives pp. 45-50: Carl E. Klarner and Stan Buchanan