Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting

2005 - 2025

From International Institute of Forecasters
Contact information at EDIRC.
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Book Review of “The Business Forecasting Deal: Exposing Myths, Eliminating Bad Practices, Providing Practical Solutions” by Michael Gilliland pp. 5-7: Ulrich Küsters
Forecaster in the Field pp. 8: Foresight Staff
The Boundaries of Quantitative Forecasting Methods: Respecting the Limits of Determinism pp. 9-15: Adam Gordon
Commentary: In Some Ways the Situation Is Even Worse pp. 16-17: David Orrell
Commentary: The View from a Quantitative Forecaster pp. 18-19: Geoff Allen
Commentary: The Limitations of Quant Models--Compared to What? pp. 20-21: Mark Little
The Holt-Winters Approach to Exponential Smoothing: 50 Years Old and Going Strong pp. 30-33: Paul Goodwin
Executive S&OP: Managing to Achieve Consensus pp. 34-38: Robert A. Stahl
Are Prediction Markets More Accurate than Simple Surveys? pp. 39-43: Andreas Graefe
Energy Forecasts to 2035: A Review of the 2010 Energy Outlook Report of the U.S. Department of Energy pp. 44-46: Ira Sohn

Defining "Demand" for Demand Forecasting pp. 4-8: Mike Gilliland
Choosing Levels of Aggregation for Supply Chain Forecasts pp. 9-13: John Boylan
The Value of Forecast Information Sharing in Supply Chains pp. 14-18: Mohammad M. Ali and John E. Boylan
Worst-Case Scenarios in Forecasting: How Bad Can Things Get? pp. 27-32: Roy Batchelor
The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2010 pp. 33-37: Allan J. Lichtman
Looking Under the Hood of That Trend pp. 38-42: Roy Pearson
Book Review of The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, by Joel Kotkin pp. 43-45: Ira Sohn

Why Hindsight Can Damage Foresight pp. 5-7: Paul Goodwin
Prediction Markets for Forecasting Drug Development pp. 8-12: Andreas Graefe
A DEFT Approach to Trend-Based Foresight pp. 13-18: Adam Gordon
Free Open-Source Forecasting Using R pp. 19-23: Stephan Kolassa and Rob Hyndman
Resolving a Family Feud: Market-Facing versus Lean Manufacturing Families pp. 32-36: Robert A. Stahl and William Kerber
Forecast Process Design, Part 3: Change Management and the Forecasting Challenge pp. 37-44: Joe Smith
Book Review pp. 45-49: Carolyn I. Allmon
Forecaster in the Field pp. 50: Foresight Staff

Using Forecasting to Steer the Business: Six Principles pp. 4-11: Steve Morlidge
A Baker’s Dozen Free Sources of Economic Forecasts pp. 12-15: Roy Pearson
Forecast Process Design: Part 2, The Forecast Reliability Assurance Model (FRAM) pp. 16-23: Joe Smith
Assessing Uncertainty in New-Product Forecasts pp. 32-39: Nick Guthrie and Des Markland
How V&M Star Converts Family Forecasts Into Resource Requirements With Executive S&OP pp. 40-45: Robert A. Stahl and Amy Mansfield
Corporate Culture and S&Op: Why Culture Counts pp. 46-49: John Mello
Forecaster in the Fieldthe Field pp. 50: Foresight Interview

Book Review of Animal Spirits pp. 5-7: Roy Batchelor
Taking Stock: Assessing the True Cost of Forecast Errors pp. 8-11: Paul Goodwin
The Alignment of People, Process, and Tools, Part 1 pp. 12-18: Joe Smith
"People, Process, then Tools"-But What if the People and Toolset are Frozen? pp. 19-21: Ian Watson-Jones
The Alignment of People, Process, and Tools: A Commentary pp. 22-24: Mark A. Moon
How Jarden Branded Consumables Made Forecasting Simpler and Better Through Executive S&OP pp. 25-31: Robert A. Stahl and Brad McCollum
Can Managers Judgmental Forecasts Be Made Scientifically? pp. 32-36: Philip Hans Franses
Case Study: Forecasting the Productivity of Professional Services pp. 37-41: Tonya Boone, Ram Ganeshan and Robert Hicks
Using Excel to Forecast: A review of two recent How-To Books pp. 42-44: Rick Hesse
Forecasters in the Field pp. 47: Staff Interviewer

Book Review of The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives pp. 5-8: Peter Sephton
Fast and Easy Access to Monthly Forecasts pp. 9-11: Roy Pearson
Simpler, Better, and Needed More than Ever pp. 12-16: Robert A. Stahl
How to Track Forecast Accuracy to Guide Forecast Process Improvement pp. 17-23: Jim Hoover
A Systems Approach to Forecasting pp. 25-30: David Orrell and Patrick McSharry
Why Do We Need Complexification? A Commentary on “Rethinking the Ways We Forecast” pp. 31-34: Roy Batchelor
Commentary on “Rethinking the Ways We Forecast” pp. 35-38: Paul Goodwin and Robert Fildes
Reply to Commentaries pp. 39: David Orrell and Patrick McSharry
Spare-Parts Forecasting: A Case Study at Hewlett-Packard pp. 40-47: Jerry Z. Shan, Julie Ward, Shelen Jain, Jose Beltran, Feridoun Amirjalayer and Young-Wook Kim
Sparklines: The Tom Thumb of Statistical Graphs pp. 48-50: Tom Yokum
Forecaster in the Field pp. 51: Staff

Review of Adam Gordon’s Book Future Savvy: Identifying Trends to Make Better Decisions, Manage Uncertainty, and Profit from Change pp. 4-6: David Orrell
Forecasting Sharp Changes pp. 7-12: Roy Batchelor
The Impact of Sales Forecast Game Playing on Supply Chains pp. 13-22: John Mello
Forecastability: Insights from Physics, Graphical Decomposition, and Information Theory pp. 24-33: Peter Catt
Toward a More Precise Definition of Forecastability pp. 34-40: John Boylan
How to Assess Forecastability pp. 41-45: Stephan Kolassa
The U.S. National Intelligence Council’s “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World” pp. 46-50: Ira Sohn

The Forecasting Mantra: A Holistic Approach to Forecasting and Planning pp. 5-13: Alec Finney and Martin Joseph
Sales Forecasting: Improving Cooperation Between the Demand People and the Supply People pp. 14-20: Tom Wallace and Bob Stahl
Sales & Operations Planning - Best Practices: Lessons Learned From Worldwide Companies pp. 21-22: John Mello
Sales & Operations Planning - Best Practices: Lessons Learned From Worldwide Companies pp. 23-25: Joseph McConnell
Predicting Recessions: A Regression (Probit) Model Approach pp. 26-32: Peter Sephton
New Evidence on the Value of Combining Forecasts pp. 33-35: Paul Goodwin
Percentage Error: What Denominator? pp. 36-40: Kesten Geeen and Len Tashman
Combined Forecasts of the 2008 Election: The Pollyvote pp. 41-42: Andreas Graefe, J. Armstrong, Alfred G. Cuzán and Randall J. Jones, Jr.
Forecasting Performance of Regression Models in the 2008 Presidential Election pp. 43: Randall J. Jones, Jr. and Alfred G. Cuzán