Can Managers Judgmental Forecasts Be Made Scientifically?

Philip Hans Franses

Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2009, issue 15, 32-36

Abstract: What is the basis of the adjustments managers make to the statistical forecasts for their product lines? You would expect that intuition plays a role and, of course, there are organizational pressures that come to bear. Research by Philip Hans Franses raises the intriguing possibility that the factors involved in the manager's judgmental forecast can be modeled statistically. An equation that attempts to replicate a forecaster's judgment is called a judgmental bootstrap. This case study suggests that judgmental bootstraps can become a useful tool in the forecasting process. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009

Date: 2009
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2009:i:15:p:32-36

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