How Well Can Social Scientists Forecast Societal Change?

Igor Grossmann, Christoph Bergmeir and Peter Slattery

Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2024, issue 72, 40-46

Abstract: In comprehensive research involving large-scale studies and a major forecasting competition in the social sciences, Igor Grossmann and his teams and co-authors have investigated the question of how well social scientists can predict societal change. They found that, in general, social scientists are not able to forecast better than laypeople or simple statistical benchmarks, and suggest better awareness and training in forecasting for social scientists. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024

Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:72:p:40-46

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