The Insufficiency of Looking at Forecast Accuracy Alone

Steven Pauly

Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2025, issue 76, 49-50

Abstract: In comprehensive research involving large-scale studies and a major forecasting competition in the social sciences, Igor Grossmann and his teams and co-authors have investigated the question of how well social scientists can predict societal change. They found that, in general, social scientists are not able to forecast better than laypeople or simple statistical benchmarks, and suggest better awareness and training in forecasting for social scientists. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2025

Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2025:i:76:p:49-50

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