The Forecaster's Evaluation Dilemma

Malte Tichy

Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2024, issue 72, 10-14

Abstract: It is common to find that extremely high actual values have been under-forecast, while extremely low actual values were over-forecast. However, as Malte Tichy points out, this ostensible forecast bias is not intrinsic to the forecast but is induced by the way the data have been evaluated (taking a "backward look" from actuals to forecasts). Tichy argues that such flawed evaluation procedures create an incentive to provide dishonest forecasts and shows how to avoid this forecaster's evaluation dilemma. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2024

Date: 2024
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://forecasters.org/foresight/bookstore/

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2024:i:72:p:10-14

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting from International Institute of Forecasters Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Michael Gilliland ().