Projecting Success: Don't Forget the Base Rate

Paul Goodwin

Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2011, issue 21, 7-9

Abstract: In Foresight’s Hot New Research Section, Goodwin comments on a recent article by Jerker Denrell and Christine Fang, published in Management Science, in which the authors warn against trusting intuition while overlooking the underlying rate. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011

Date: 2011
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