Does a Presidential Candidate’s Campaign Affect the Election Outcome?

Richard Nadeau and Michael S. Lewis-Beck

Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2012, issue 24, 15-18

Abstract: Prevailing wisdom has it that campaigns don’t matter when it comes to forecasting U.S. presidential elections; the incorporation of direct campaign measures into statistical forecasting models does not appear to improve forecasting accuracy. Richard Nadeau and Michael Lewis-Beck now challenge that assertion, based on consideration of the quality and clarity of a candidate’s campaign. They find small but statistically significant campaign effects that can affect the outcome in an otherwise close election. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012

Date: 2012
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:24:p:15-18

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