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Hemlines and the Economy: Which Goes Down First?

Marjolein van Baardwijk and Philip Hans Franses

Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2012, issue 26, 27-28

Abstract: Women’s hemlines are falling to ankle length this year. Could this mean that another recession is in the works? Not at all, say the authors; rather, the legend that hemlines are a lead indicator of the economy is apparently backwards. Hemlines, in fact, appear to lag behind economic activity by three years, so it seems the current drop in hemlines is a reaction to the most recent economic recession. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012

Date: 2012
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