Forecast Quality in the Supply Chain

Steve Morlidge

Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2014, issue 33, 26-31

Abstract: Building on his two previous publications in Foresight on the measurement of forecastability, Steve shows how forecast quality can be objectively measured using the relative absolute error (RAE) metric and how this metric can be used to reveal the potential for improvements in forecast accuracy. He presents compelling evidence that many companies fail to achieve levels of relative error that are better than a simple ?same as last period? na‹ve forecast, and that around 50% of individual forecasts fail to meet this benchmark. He makes it clear that, while there is a great need for improvement in forecast quality, there is the potential for forecasters to accomplish just such improvement. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2014

Date: 2014
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