Getting Real about Uncertainty

Paul Goodwin

Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2014, issue 33, 4-7

Abstract: Goodwin introduces his article with an incident in Italy when seven people (engineers, scientists, and a civil servant) were jailed following an earthquake in the city of L?Aquila in which 309 people died. At the trial it was alleged that they had failed in their duty by not properly assessing and communicating the risk that an earthquake in the area was imminent. Their mistake had been that they had simply conveyed the most likely outcome ? no earthquake ? rather than a probabilistic forecast that might have alerted people to the small chance of a strong earthquake. Goodwin points out, however, that incorporating uncertainty into forecasts is not straightforward. Probabilistic forecasts need to be presented so that they are credible, understandable, and useful to decision makers. Getting reliable estimates of uncertainty in the first place poses its own challenges, as he goes on to demonstrate. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2014

Date: 2014
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