Predicting the Uptake Curve of New Drugs

Christian Schafer and Stephan Brebeck

Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2017, issue 47, 19-24

Abstract: Current academician and former pharma analyst Christian Sch?fer and pharma strategy manager Stephan Brebeck collaborate here to offer a new approach to the very challenging task of predicting the market success of a new drug following its launch. They argue that the traditional approaches have fundamental disadvantages and describe their Dynamic Patient-Share (DPS) method as a simpler, more transparent forecasting method that additionally shows great potential to improve forecast accuracy, not just for medications but new products in general. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2017

Date: 2017
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2017:i:47:p:19-24

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