Forecasting the Impact of Artificial Intelligence: Another Voice

Lawrence Vanston

Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2019, issue 53, 39-45

Abstract: Author Vanston writes, "Over the past year I have had the pleasure to read Foresight's five-part series "Forecasting the Impact of Artificial Intelligence" by Spyros Makridakis. Recently I was asked to offer my thoughts on these articles as a forecaster with a deep interest in AI. Since I have a lot to say, I agreed. First, Spyros has done a masterly job conveying a complex and broad-ranging topic. He has raised many of the crucial issues and made the importance of this topic very clear. There are few people with his insight and experience in forecasting who could have done this, and he has done it well. Here I will add my voice, focusing on areas in which I thought the article was weak (e.g, AI performance forecasts); areas that Spyros covers well, but are crucial enough to deserve further illumination (AI's impact on employment and the dangers of AI); and areas of disagreement (brain-computer interfaces, blockchain, and AI for forecasting)." Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2019

Date: 2019
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