Commentary: Academicians and Practitioners Will Thrive

Lawrence Vanston

Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2021, issue 60, 43-43

Abstract: Vanston comments on the article by Makridakis and Spiliotis in the same issue of Foresight, The M5 Competition and the Future of Human Expertise in Forecasting. "The results of the M5 competition are right on forecast. We have a rapidly improving new technology (ML) and a played-out old technology (statistical forecasting). At first, the new technology was inferior, then it reached parity (M4), and now is clearly superior (M5). That leads to technology substitution where the new replaces the old, typically following an S-shaped curve. It's the classic story: folks in the old technology are forced to adapt or leave the business." He speculates about who will be able to adapt fairly easily to the influence of ML and who will have a harder time. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021

Date: 2021
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