How to Harness the Wisdom of Crowds

Paul Goodwin

Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2021, issue 60, 5-7

Abstract: Goodwin writes about a forecasting contest in Alaska, started over 100 years ago, to forecast when the ice would break up on the Tanana River. This became "a natural experiment to test whether a large group of people can make an accurate forecast of a volatile event when their individual judgments are aggregated." Colleagues at the University of Alaska in Fairbanks investigated by researching the data over the years. Their results supported the theory of the wisdom of crowds, as "none of the statistical methods beat the aggregate predictions of the competitors." Goodwin cites conditions that favor group-based forecasts and explores the question whether individual forecasts should be weighted. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021

Date: 2021
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