A Better Crystal Ball: The Right Way to Think About the Future

J. Peter Scoblic and Philip E. Tetlock

Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2021, issue 62, 27-32

Abstract: The feature section in this issue is entitled A Better Crystal Ball. In their article of that name in the journal Foreign Affairs, reprinted with permission here, J. Peter Scoblic and Philip Tetlock propose a synthesis of scenario forecasting - the creation of plausible futures - with probabilistic judgments about the likelihood of different scenarios. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021

Date: 2021
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