Near-Term Questions for Long-Term Uncertainties

Robert Fildes

Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2021, issue 62, 50-51

Abstract: Several commentaries on the "better crystal ball," this being the sixth, clarify the objectives of scenario development, examine the distinction between risk and uncertainty, and lay out important obstacles to the attachment of probabilities to uncertain events. The Scoblic-Tetlock response to the commentaries will be printed in the next issue of Foresight, 2021:Q4. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021

Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:62:p:50-51

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