Into the (Largely) Unknown: A Simple Way to Handle Uncertainty

Steve Morlidge and Paul Goodwin

Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2021, issue 63, 14-20

Abstract: In this first of a two-part article, Steve Morlidge and Paul Goodwin make a strong case for the use of possibility distributions to estimate likelihoods of different outcomes (e.g., sales levels) in situations, such as new-product introductions, where there are no past data to provide guidance. When we face decisions relating to an uncertain future, it's best not to pretend that we can make precise forecasts about what will transpire: there's no value in being precise about our ignorance. In these cases, simple, transparent methods that formally recognise our lack of knowledge, and the fuzziness that accompanies it, come into their own. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021

Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:63:p:14-20

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