Can We Reconcile Narrativist and Probabilistic Modes of Thinking?

Philip E. Tetlock and J. Peter Scoblic

Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2021, issue 63, 21-24

Abstract: The previous issue of Foresight (2021: Q3) featured a special section built around the article "A Better Crystal Ball" written by J. Peter Scoblic and Philip E. Tetlock. In the central piece, the authors proposed a synergy of what traditionally have been considered two distinct approaches to judgmental forecasting: scenario planning and probabilistic forecasting. Scenario planners maintain that there are so many possible futures that one can imagine them only in terms of plausibility, not probability. By contrast, forecasters believe it is possible to calculate the odds of possible outcomes, thereby transforming amorphous uncertainty into quantifiable risk. Because each method has its strengths, the optimal approach is to combine them. The feature also showcased six commentaries by some renowned forecasting academics and practitioners. Several of the commentaries expressed skepticism about combining these two approaches in the face of deep uncertainty, emphasizing distinctions between risk, which can be quantified, and uncertainty, which perhaps cannot. The critical roundup included * Paul Goodwin: Scenarios and Probabilities: Incompatible or Complementary? * Steve Morlidge: Risk vs. Uncertainty * Roy Batchelor: Scenarios with Probabilities for Financial Forecasting * Stefan de Kok: Probabilistic Scenarios in Demand and Supply Planning * Mike Tremblay: Uncertainty Is the Human Condition * Robert Fildes: Near-Term Questions for Long-Term Uncertainties Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021

Date: 2021
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