An Extension of Possibility Distributions in Fuzzy Forecasting

Stefan de Kok

Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 2022, issue 65, 17-22

Abstract: In the prior two issues of Foresight, we printed a two-part article by Steve Morlidge and Paul Goodwin (MG) on the use of possibility distributions (an application of fuzzy forecasting) for assessing the uncertainty in views about the future. The examples MG provided were based on the assumption that the most appropriate basis of analysis would be a three-point triangular distribution of possibilities for best case, worst case, and most plausible case. In this article, Stefan de Kok uses one of the MG examples to show that there could be value added by accounting for more than these three cases. In geometric terms, the analysis based on a possibility distribution triangle is upgraded to a possibility pyramid. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2022

Date: 2022
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