Inflation is slowing down, but inflationary risks remain

Evgeny Goryunov, Pavel Trunin and Maria Chembulatova
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Evgeny Goryunov: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Pavel Trunin: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Maria Chembulatova: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Monitoring of Russia's Economic Outlook. Trends and Challenges of Socio-Economic Development (In Russian), 2025, issue 19, 5

Abstract: At its meeting on September 12, 2025, the Bank of Russia lowered its key rate by 100 basis points to 17% per annum. In August, inflation slowed to 8.1%, the lowest level since April 2024. For the first time since August 2022, there was a 0.4% decline in the overall level of consumer prices relative to the previous month. However, significant inflationary risks remain, including a resumption of credit growth, inflationary expectations and budget deficits, tensions in the labor market, and a weakening of the ruble amid slowing global GDP growth and falling oil prices in the event of escalating tensions in global trade.

Keywords: Russian economy; inflation; Bank of Russia; key rate; inflationary expectations; consumer sentiments; prices (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E44 E52 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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