Inflation and monetary policy in October 2025

Evgeniy Goryunov, Pavel Trunin and Maria Chembulatova
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Evgeniy Goryunov: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Maria Chembulatova: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Monitoring of Russia's Economic Outlook. Trends and Challenges of Socio-Economic Development (In Russian), 2025, issue 27, 5

Abstract: At its meeting on October 24, 2025, the Bank of Russia lowered the key rate by 50 basis points to 16.5% per annum. In October, annual inflation over the past 12 months was 7.7% y/y, which is the lowest figure since March 2024. Compared to the previous month, the overall level of consumer prices increased by 0.5%. Pro-inflationary risks continue to prevail over disinflationary ones. Among the main pro-inflationary factors are: growth in lending, inflationary expectations and the budget deficit, continued tension in the labor market, lower oil prices, indexation of tariffs for housing and communal services, and VAT.

Keywords: Russian economy; inflation; monetary policy; fiscal policy; Bank of Russia; key rate; budget deficit; labor market; oil prices; VAT (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E44 E5 E51 E52 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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