Prospects for global food markets in the new agricultural season

Denis Ternovsky
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Denis Ternovsky: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Monitoring of Russia's Economic Outlook. Trends and Challenges of Socio-Economic Development (In Russian), 2026, issue 17, 5

Abstract: The 2026/2027 agricultural season is beginning amid heightened uncertainty caused by a combination of climate, energy, and logistics risks. Meanwhile, the fundamentals of the global food market remain relatively favorable thanks to accumulated production capacity and record grain stocks, which ensure the sector’s resilience to short-term market fluctuations. A key trend of the season is the divergence in dynamics across commodity groups: the grain market is entering a phase of long-term price stagnation amid a supply surplus, while the vegetable oil market is becoming the primary source of volatility and price risks. This tension stems from the rapid growth in oil consumption by the biofuel sector, the uneven distribution of trade flows, and declining global inventories. At the same time, the state of global transportation infrastructure—including Black Sea routes and alternative logistics corridors—is of particular importance, as food availability for importing countries depends on it.

Keywords: Global food market; food prices; grain production; food production; crops; vegetable oil; food trade infrastructure (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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