Export–Import Activity and Its Assessment: The Ukrainian Case

Lyudmyla Malyarets, Svitlana Labunska (), Mykola Sidak, Hanna Bilokonenko and Viktoriya Onegina
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Lyudmyla Malyarets: Department of Economic and Mathematical Modeling, Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics, Nauky Ave., 9-A, 61166 Kharkiv, Ukraine
Svitlana Labunska: Department of Accounting and Business Consulting, Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics, Nauky Ave., 9-A, 61166 Kharkiv, Ukraine
Mykola Sidak: Institute of Public Administration, Bratislava University of Economics and Management, Furdekova 16, 851 04 Bratislava, Slovakia
Hanna Bilokonenko: Department of Psychology and Sociology, Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics, Nauky Ave., 9-A, 61166 Kharkiv, Ukraine
Viktoriya Onegina: Department of Finance, Economics, Law, and Systems, Clermont School of Business, 4 Boulevard Truden, 63000 Clermont-Ferrand, France

Administrative Sciences, 2025, vol. 15, issue 2, 1-27

Abstract: The development of export–import activity at all levels of the national economic system is an important factor and the result of globalization and country integration in the world economy. The elaboration of sound public policy related to export–import activity is based on its assessment and analysis. The goal of this article is the systematization and development of methodological support for the evaluation of the export–import activity of the national economy, including the development of its technology and a conceptual assessment model, which is presented in a structural–logical–semantic form, and the analysis and forecasting of export–import activity using the proposed model. To achieve the research goal, quantitative methods were used: the method of integral taxonomic indicators of development and efficiency, the method of forecasting based on trend models, multivariate factor analysis, and the modified method of cointegration of time series. A set of indicators for the export–import activity “development–effectiveness” matrix was proposed, and their dichotomies were studied. To ensure the reliability and objectivity of the export–import activity assessment, a methodological basis, which is detailed by structural elements, was formed. The model was constructed and tested based on monthly data on the export–import activity of Ukraine for the years 2021–2023.

Keywords: export–import activity; foreign trade; development; effectiveness; conceptual model; assessment technology; methodical tools; Ukraine (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L M M0 M1 M10 M11 M12 M14 M15 M16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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