Exploring the Mechanisms of the Spatiotemporal Invasion of Tuta absoluta in Asia

Ritter A. Guimapi, Ramasamy Srinivasan, Henri E. Tonnang, Paola Sotelo-Cardona and Samira A. Mohamed
Additional contact information
Ritter A. Guimapi: ICIPE—International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology, Nairobi 30772-00100, Kenya
Ramasamy Srinivasan: World Vegetable Center, Shanhua, Tainan 74151, Taiwan
Henri E. Tonnang: ICIPE—International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology, Nairobi 30772-00100, Kenya
Paola Sotelo-Cardona: World Vegetable Center, Shanhua, Tainan 74151, Taiwan
Samira A. Mohamed: ICIPE—International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology, Nairobi 30772-00100, Kenya

Agriculture, 2020, vol. 10, issue 4, 1-12

Abstract: International crop exchange always brings the risk of introducing pests to countries where they are not yet present. The invasive pest Tuta absoluta (Meyrick 1917), after taking just a decade (2008–2017) to invade the entire Africa continent, is now continuing its expansion in Asia. From its first detection in Turkey (2009), the pest has extended its range of invasion at a very high speed of progression to the southeast part of Asia. This study adopted the cellular automata modelling method used to successfully predict the spatiotemporal invasion of T. absoluta in Africa to find out if the invasive pest is propagating with a similar pattern of spread in Asia. Using land cover vegetation, temperature, relative humidity and the natural flight ability of Tuta absoluta, we simulated the spread pattern considering Turkey as the initial point in Asia. The model revealed that it would take about 20 years for the pest to reach the southeast part of Asia, unlike real life where it took just about 10 years (2009–2018). This can be explained by international crop trade, especially in tomatoes, and movement of people, suggesting that recommendations and advice from the previous invasion in Europe and Africa were not implemented or not seriously taken into account. Moreover, some countries like Taiwan and the Philippines with suitable environmental condition for the establishment of T. absoluta are not at risk of natural invasion by flight, but quarantine measure must be put in place to avoid invasion by crop transportation or people movement. The results can assist policy makers to better understand the different mechanisms of invasion of T. absoluta in Asia, and therefore adjust or adapt control measures that fit well with the dynamic of the invasive pest observed.

Keywords: cellular automata; Tuta absoluta; insect’s pest invasion; dispersal pattern; international crop trade; integrated pest management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/10/4/124/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/10/4/124/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jagris:v:10:y:2020:i:4:p:124-:d:344746

Access Statistics for this article

Agriculture is currently edited by Ms. Leda Xuan

More articles in Agriculture from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().