Mid-Term Impact of Climate Change on Hazelnut Yield

Nazan An, Mustafa Tufan Turp, Murat Türkeş and Mehmet Levent Kurnaz
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Nazan An: Institute of Environmental Sciences, Bogazici University, Istanbul 34342, Turkey
Mustafa Tufan Turp: Institute of Environmental Sciences, Bogazici University, Istanbul 34342, Turkey
Murat Türkeş: Center for Climate Change and Policy Studies, Bogazici University, Istanbul 34342, Turkey
Mehmet Levent Kurnaz: Center for Climate Change and Policy Studies, Bogazici University, Istanbul 34342, Turkey

Agriculture, 2020, vol. 10, issue 5, 1-20

Abstract: The impacts of climate change on hazelnut production in Turkey—the world’s largest producer and exporter—may significantly affect the global hazelnut market depending on production and yield change. In this paper, based on gridded climate data with a 10-km horizontal resolution from regional climate model RegCM4.4 under the RCP8.5 business-as-usual scenario, multiple regression analysis was conducted to investigate yield change for the period of 2021–2050. We examined a total of 88 different locations and three phenological growth stages. We observed that hazelnut yield exhibits considerable variability depending on the phenological and sub-regional and the microclimate conditions in the humid-temperate Black Sea and the semi-humid Marmara regions. Until the middle of the century, we project that hazelnut yield will decrease up to 13% in approximately half of the current production areas. In addition, the fact that the majority of the decreases will be observed in the eastern Black Sea sub-region will cause hazelnut quality to be adversely affected. These findings are highly relevant in the context of regional development and trade in Turkey, and hazelnut processing and manufacturing sectors abroad.

Keywords: agricultural impact; crop yield; climate variability and seasonality; climate change impact; hazelnut yield; regional climate modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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