Projection of Agricultural Water Stress for Climate Change Scenarios: A Regional Case Study of Iraq

Saleem A. Salman, Shamsuddin Shahid, Ahmad Sharafati, Golam Saleh Ahmed Salem, Amyrhul Abu Bakar, Aitazaz Ahsan Farooque, Eun-Sung Chung, Yaseen Adnan Ahmed, Bryukhov Mikhail and Zaher Mundher Yaseen
Additional contact information
Saleem A. Salman: School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru 81310, Malaysia
Shamsuddin Shahid: School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru 81310, Malaysia
Ahmad Sharafati: Department of Civil Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
Golam Saleh Ahmed Salem: Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Trust University, Barishal, Ruiya, Nobogram Road, Barishal 8200, Bangladesh
Amyrhul Abu Bakar: School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru 81310, Malaysia
Aitazaz Ahsan Farooque: Faculty of Sustainable Design Engineering, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PE C1A4P3, Canada
Eun-Sung Chung: Faculty of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, Seoul 01811, Korea
Yaseen Adnan Ahmed: School of Mechanical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru 81310, Malaysia
Bryukhov Mikhail: Department of Urban Planning, Engineering Networks and Systems, Institute of Architecture and Construction, South Ural State University, 76, Lenin Prospect, 454080 Chelyabinsk, Russia
Zaher Mundher Yaseen: Department of Urban Planning, Engineering Networks and Systems, Institute of Architecture and Construction, South Ural State University, 76, Lenin Prospect, 454080 Chelyabinsk, Russia

Agriculture, 2021, vol. 11, issue 12, 1-16

Abstract: Assessment of possible changes in crops water stress due to climate alteration is essential for agricultural planning, particularly in arid regions where water supply is the major challenge for agricultural development. This study aims to project climatic water availability (CWA) and crop water demand (CWD) to outline the possible future agricultural water stress of Iraq for different radiative concentration pathways (RCPs). The ensemble means of downscaled precipitation and temperature projections of the selected global climate models (GCMs) were used in a simple water balance model for this purpose. The modified Mann–Kendall (mMK) trend test was employed to estimate the tendency in CWA and the Wilcoxon rank test to evaluate CWD alteration in three future time horizons compared to the base period (1971–2000). The results revealed a decrease in CWA at a rate of up to −34/year during 2010–2099 for RCP8.5. The largest declination would be in summer (−29/year) and an insignificant decrease in winter (−1.3/year). The study also showed an increase in CWD of all major crops for all scenarios. The highest increase in CWD would be for summer crops, approximately 320 mm, and the lowest for winter crops, nearly 32 mm for RCP8.5 in the far future (2070–2099). The decrease in CWA and increase in CWD would cause a sharp rise in crop water stress in Iraq. This study indicates that the increase in temperature is the main reason for a large increase in CWD and increased agricultural water stress in Iraq.

Keywords: general circulation models; climate change; crops water availability; trend analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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