Projection of Rice and Maize Productions in Northern Thailand under Climate Change Scenario RCP8.5

Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen, Pavinee Chanvichit, Radshadaporn Janta and Vanisa Surapipith
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Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen: Atmospheric Pollution and Climate Change Research Units, School of Energy and Environment, University of Phayao, Phayao 56000, Thailand
Pavinee Chanvichit: School of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Phayao, Phayao 56000, Thailand
Radshadaporn Janta: National Astronomical Research Institute of Thailand, Chiang Mai 53000, Thailand
Vanisa Surapipith: National Astronomical Research Institute of Thailand, Chiang Mai 53000, Thailand

Agriculture, 2021, vol. 11, issue 1, 1-15

Abstract: Climate change has an effect human living in a variety of ways, such as health and food security. This study presents a prediction of crop yields and production risks during the years 2020–2029 in northern Thailand using the coupling of a 1 km resolution regional climate model, which is downscaled using a conservative remapping method, and the Decision Support System for the Transfer of Agrotechnology (DSSAT) modeling system. The accuracy of the climate and agricultural model was appropriate compared with the observations, with an Index of Agreement (IOA) in the range of 0.65–0.89. The results reveal the negative effects of climate change on rice and maize production in northern Thailand. We show that, in northern Thailand, rainfed rice and maize production may be reduced by 5% for rice and 4% for maize. Moreover, rice and maize production risk analysis showed that maize production is at a high risk of low production, while rice production is at a low risk. Additional irrigation, crop diversification, the selection of appropriate planting dates and methods of conservation are promising adaptation strategies in northern Thailand that may improve crop production.

Keywords: future rice production; future maize production; climate change; agriculture; Thailand (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jagris:v:11:y:2021:i:1:p:23-:d:473521

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