Impact of Climate Warming on Cotton Growth and Yields in China and Pakistan: A Regional Perspective

Adnan Arshad, Muhammad Ali Raza, Yue Zhang, Lizhen Zhang, Xuejiao Wang, Mukhtar Ahmed and Muhammad Habib-ur-Rehman
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Adnan Arshad: College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Yuanmingyuan West Rd. No.2, Haidian District, Beijing 100193, China
Muhammad Ali Raza: College of Agronomy, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 625014, China
Yue Zhang: College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Yuanmingyuan West Rd. No.2, Haidian District, Beijing 100193, China
Lizhen Zhang: College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Yuanmingyuan West Rd. No.2, Haidian District, Beijing 100193, China
Xuejiao Wang: Xinjiang Agro-meteorological Observatory, Urumqi 830002, China
Mukhtar Ahmed: Department of Agricultural Research for Northern Sweden, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, P.O. Box 7070, SE-750 07 Uppsala, Sweden
Muhammad Habib-ur-Rehman: Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES) University Bonn, 53115 Bonn, Germany

Agriculture, 2021, vol. 11, issue 2, 1-22

Abstract: Year to year change in weather poses serious threats to agriculture globally, especially in developing countries. Global climate models simulate an increase in global temperature between 2.9 to 5.5 °C till 2060, and crop production is highly vulnerable to climate warming trends. Extreme temperature causes a significant reduction in crop yields by negatively regulating the crop phenology. Therefore, to evaluate warming impact on cotton ( Gossypium hirsutum L.) production and management practices, we quantified agrometeorological data of 30 years by applying multiple crop modelling tools to compute the expected rise in temperature, impact of crop phenology, yield loss, provision of agrometeorology-services, agronomic technologies, and adaptation to climate-smart agriculture. Model projections of 15 agrometeorology stations showed that the growing duration of the sowing-boll opening and sowing-harvesting stages was reduced by 2.30 to 5.66 days decade −1 and 4.23 days decade −1 , respectively, in Pakistan. Temperature rise in China also advanced the planting dates, sowing emergence, 3–5 leaves, budding anthesis, full-bloom, cleft-boll, boll-opening, and boll-opening filling by 24.4, 26.2, 24.8, 23.3, 22.6, 15.8, 14.6, 5.4, 2.9, and 8.0 days. Furthermore, present findings exhibited that the warming effect of sowing-harvest time was observed 2.16 days premature, and delayed for 8.2, 2.4, and 5.3 days in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s in China. APSIM-cotton quantification revealed that the sowing, emergence, flowering, and maturity stages were negatively correlated with temperature −2.03, −1.93, −1.09, and −0.42 days °C −1 on average, respectively. This study also provided insight into the adaptation of smart and better cotton by improving agrotechnological services.

Keywords: agrometeorology; temperature increase; cotton phenology; climate-smart management; APSIM-cotton crop modelling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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