Using Aggregated Farm Location Information to Predict Regional Structural Change of Farm Specialisation, Size and Exit/Entry in Norway Agriculture

Sebastian Neuenfeldt, Alexander Gocht, Thomas Heckelei, Klaus Mittenzwei and Pavel Ciaian
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Sebastian Neuenfeldt: Institute of Farm Economics, Thünen Institute, Bundesallee 63, 38116 Braunschweig, Germany
Alexander Gocht: Institute of Farm Economics, Thünen Institute, Bundesallee 63, 38116 Braunschweig, Germany
Klaus Mittenzwei: Institute for Rural and Regional Research, Loholt Alle 81, 7049 Trondheim, Norway

Agriculture, 2021, vol. 11, issue 7, 1-22

Abstract: In this paper, we extend the analysis of farm structural change with respect to farm specialisation, size and exit in Norway by, first, explicitly incorporating the location information of farms generating a number of neighbouring farms within a certain range and, second, by predicting farm numbers in addition to farm group shares, which allows for consideration of the exit farm group. We use Norwegian single-farm full census data for the period 1996–2015. Four production specialisations and seven size classes represent farm groups, as well as a residual and an exit farm group at the regional level. The estimates indicate the explanatory power and importance of aggregated farm location information in the model. Simulation analysis showed that the farm groups develop differently, given a change in the number of neighbouring farms with respect to the farm numbers and farm group shares.

Keywords: farm structural change; MCI model; farm location; production specialisation; farm entry and exit (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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