Evaluation of Different Modelling Techniques with Fusion of Satellite, Soil and Agro-Meteorological Data for the Assessment of Durum Wheat Yield under a Large Scale Application

Emmanuel Lekakis (), Athanasios Zaikos, Alexios Polychronidis, Christos Efthimiou, Ioannis Pourikas and Theano Mamouka
Additional contact information
Emmanuel Lekakis: AgroApps P.C., Koritsas 34, 55133 Thessaloniki, Greece
Athanasios Zaikos: Big Blue Data Academy, Gennadiou 14, 13343 Fyli, Greece
Alexios Polychronidis: Big Blue Data Academy, Gennadiou 14, 13343 Fyli, Greece
Christos Efthimiou: Big Blue Data Academy, Gennadiou 14, 13343 Fyli, Greece
Ioannis Pourikas: Melissa Kikizas, Larisas-Farsalon Rd, 41110 Larisa, Greece
Theano Mamouka: AgroApps P.C., Koritsas 34, 55133 Thessaloniki, Greece

Agriculture, 2022, vol. 12, issue 10, 1-23

Abstract: Food and feed production must be increased or maintained in order to meet the demands of the earth’s population. Under this scenario, the question that arises is how to address the demand for agricultural products given that the pressures on land use have already increased. In addition, it is obvious that climate change will have a serious negative impact and threaten the productivity and sustainability of food production systems. Therefore, understanding and predicting the outcome of crop production, while considering adaptation and sustainability, is essential. The need for information on decision making at all levels, from crop management to adaptation strategies, is constantly increasing and methods for providing such information are urgently needed in a relatively short period of time. Thus arises the need to use effective data, such as satellite and meteorological data, but also operational tools, to assess crop yields over local, regional, national, and global scales. In this work, three modeling approaches built on a fusion of satellite-derived vegetation indices, agro-meteorological indicators, and crop phenology are tested and evaluated in terms of data intensiveness for the prediction of wheat yields in large scale applications. The obtained results indicated that medium input data intensity methods are effective tools for yield assessments. The methods, namely, a semi-empirical regression model, a machine learning regression model, and a process-based model, provided high to moderate accuracies by fully relying on freely available datasets as sources of input data. The findings are comparable with those reported in the literature for detailed field experiments, thereby introducing a promising framework that can support operational platforms for dynamic yield forecasting, operating at the administrative or regional unit scale.

Keywords: yield prediction; data fusion; machine learning; publicly available datasets; AquaCrop (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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