Potential Global Distribution of Invasive Alien Species, Anthonomus grandis Boheman, under Current and Future Climate Using Optimal MaxEnt Model

Zhenan Jin, Wentao Yu, Haoxiang Zhao, Xiaoqing Xian, Kaiting Jing, Nianwan Yang, Xinmin Lu () and Wanxue Liu ()
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Zhenan Jin: Collage of Plant Science & Technology of Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China
Wentao Yu: Fujian Key Laboratory for Technology Research of Inspection and Quarantine, Technology Centre of Fuzhou Customs, Fuzhou 350001, China
Haoxiang Zhao: State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing 100193, China
Xiaoqing Xian: State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing 100193, China
Kaiting Jing: State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing 100193, China
Nianwan Yang: State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing 100193, China
Xinmin Lu: Collage of Plant Science & Technology of Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China
Wanxue Liu: State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing 100193, China

Agriculture, 2022, vol. 12, issue 11, 1-14

Abstract: The boll weevil, Anthonomus grandis Boheman (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), is an invasive alien species that can damage cotton plants and cause huge economic losses in the cotton industry. Currently, A. grandis is mainly distributed in the American continent. However, few studies have indicated the distribution and modification of its suitable global habitats after undergoing climate change. Based on the 339 distribution records of A. grandis and eight bioclimatic variables, we used the optimal MaxEnt model to predict the potential global distribution of A. grandis under the current (1970–2000) and future climatic scenarios (SSP5-8.5). The annual mean temperature (bio1) and isothermality (bio3) were the two most important bioclimatic variables, which indicates that the survival of A. grandis is extremely sensitive to temperature fluctuations. Under the current scenario, the highly suitable habitats were mainly distributed in America (the USA, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay), Africa (South Africa, Ethiopia, and Mozambique), Asia (Pakistan, India, Thailand, Burma, and China), and Oceania (Australia). In future scenarios (SSP5-8.5), the potential suitable global habitats reached the highest level in America, Africa, Asia, and Oceania in the 2090s. Our study provides a meaningful reference for researchers, quarantine officers, and governments to devise suitable management control strategies for A. grandis .

Keywords: cotton; invasive alien species; Anthonomus grandis Boheman; MaxEnt; global suitable habitats; climate change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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