China and Countries along the “Belt and Road”: Agricultural Trade Volatility Decomposition and Food Security

Lunzheng Zhou, Guangji Tong, Jiaguo Qi and Lu He ()
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Lunzheng Zhou: College of Economics and Management, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China
Guangji Tong: College of Economics and Management, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China
Jiaguo Qi: Center for Global Change and Earth Observations, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA
Lu He: College of Economics and Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, China

Agriculture, 2022, vol. 12, issue 11, 1-17

Abstract: Agricultural products are essential for human survival, and strengthening agricultural trade cooperation between China and countries along the “Belt and Road” (B&R) can promote food security, but there are few studies on bilateral trade fluctuation factors in the literature. This paper uses the modified multi-country multi-product CMS (constant market share) model and the two-country multi-product CMS model to decompose the fluctuation of agricultural trade between China and B&R countries by stage, region, and agricultural product type. The results show that in recent years, in the fluctuation of China’s exports to B&R countries, in overall agricultural products, the demand effect plays a major hindering role, accounting for −9.2%; in the region, Southeast Asia has the largest share of trade, which is mainly pulled by the joint demand effect, structural effect and competitiveness effect; in specific agricultural products, animal, fruit and vegetable, and food processing products are mainly pulled by competitiveness. In the fluctuation of B&R countries’ export to China, in overall agricultural products, the demand effect pulls the largest share, accounting for 72.55%; in the region, Southeast Asia is mainly driven by the joint pull of demand effect, structural effect. and competitiveness effect; in specific agricultural products, animal, fruit and vegetable, and food processing products are mainly driven by the pull of demand effect. The findings of this paper can provide a basis for making decisions on food security cooperation between China and B&R countries.

Keywords: “Belt and Road”; agricultural products; trade volatility; CMS model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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