Simulating the Impacts of Climate Change on Maize Yields Using EPIC: A Case Study in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa

Dennis Junior Choruma, Frank Chukwuzuoke Akamagwuna and Nelson Oghenekaro Odume
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Dennis Junior Choruma: African Studies Centre, Rhodes University, P.O. Box 94, Grahamstown 6139, South Africa
Frank Chukwuzuoke Akamagwuna: Institute for Water Research, Rhodes University, P.O. Box 94, Grahamstown 6139, South Africa
Nelson Oghenekaro Odume: Institute for Water Research, Rhodes University, P.O. Box 94, Grahamstown 6139, South Africa

Agriculture, 2022, vol. 12, issue 6, 1-24

Abstract: Climate change has been projected to impact negatively on African agricultural systems. However, there is still an insufficient understanding of the possible effects of climate change on crop yields in Africa. In this study, a previously calibrated Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was used to assess the effects of future climate change on maize ( Zea mays L.) yield in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. The study aimed to compare maize yields obtained from EPIC simulations using baseline (1980–2010) weather data with maize yields obtained from EPIC using statistically downscaled future climate data sets for two future periods (mid-century (2040–2069) and late century (2070–2099)). We used three general circulation models (GCMs): BCC-CSM1.1, GFDL-ESM2M and MIROC-ES under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, to drive the future maize yield simulations. Simulation results showed that for all three GCMs and for both future periods, a decrease in maize production was projected. Maize yield was projected to decrease by as much as 23.8% for MIROC, RCP 8.5, (2070–2099). The temperature was projected to rise by over 50% in winter under RCP 8.5 for both future periods. For both future scenarios, rainfall was projected to decrease in the summer months while increasing in the winter months. Overall, this study provides preliminary evidence that local farmers and the Eastern Cape government can utilise to develop local climate change adaptation strategies.

Keywords: climate change; agriculture; crop modelling; yield; future climate scenarios (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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