A Method for Prediction of Winter Wheat Maturity Date Based on MODIS Time Series and Accumulated Temperature

Fa Zhao, Guijun Yang, Hao Yang, Huiling Long, Weimeng Xu, Yaohui Zhu, Yang Meng, Shaoyu Han and Miao Liu
Additional contact information
Fa Zhao: School of Electrical Engineering, Anhui Polytechnic University, Wuhu 241000, China
Guijun Yang: Key Laboratory of Quantitative Remote Sensing in Agriculture of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Information Technology Research Center, Beijing Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, Beijing 100097, China
Hao Yang: Key Laboratory of Quantitative Remote Sensing in Agriculture of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Information Technology Research Center, Beijing Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, Beijing 100097, China
Huiling Long: Key Laboratory of Quantitative Remote Sensing in Agriculture of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Information Technology Research Center, Beijing Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, Beijing 100097, China
Weimeng Xu: College of Geological Engineering and Geomatics, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710054, China
Yaohui Zhu: Key Laboratory of Quantitative Remote Sensing in Agriculture of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Information Technology Research Center, Beijing Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, Beijing 100097, China
Yang Meng: Key Laboratory of Quantitative Remote Sensing in Agriculture of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Information Technology Research Center, Beijing Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, Beijing 100097, China
Shaoyu Han: Key Laboratory of Quantitative Remote Sensing in Agriculture of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Information Technology Research Center, Beijing Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, Beijing 100097, China
Miao Liu: Key Laboratory of Quantitative Remote Sensing in Agriculture of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Information Technology Research Center, Beijing Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, Beijing 100097, China

Agriculture, 2022, vol. 12, issue 7, 1-14

Abstract: Accurate determination of crop phenology is key to field management and decision making. The existing research on phenology based on remote sensing data is mainly phenology monitoring, which cannot realize the prediction of phenology. In this paper, we propose a method to predict the maturity date (MD) of winter wheat based on a combination of phenology monitoring method and accumulated temperature. The method is divided into three steps. First, 2-band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) time series data were generated using the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) reflectance data at 8-day intervals; then, the time series were reconstructed using polynomial fitting and the heading date (HD) of winter wheat was extracted using the maximum method. Secondly, the average cumulative temperature required for winter wheat to go from HD to MD was calculated based on historical phenological data and meteorological data. Finally, the timing of winter wheat HD and the current year’s Meteorological Data were combined to predict winter wheat MD. The method was used to predict the MD of winter wheat in Hebei in 2018 and was validated with data from the phenology station and the Modis Land Cover Dynamics (MCD12Q2) product. The results showed that the coefficient of determination (R 2 ) for predicting MD using this method was 0.48 and 0.74, the root mean square error (RMSE) was 7.03 and 4.91 days, and Bias was 4.93 and −3.59 days, respectively. In summary, the method is capable of predicting winter wheat MD at the regional scale.

Keywords: prediction; winter wheat; maturity; MODIS; accumulated temperature (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/12/7/945/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/12/7/945/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jagris:v:12:y:2022:i:7:p:945-:d:852070

Access Statistics for this article

Agriculture is currently edited by Ms. Leda Xuan

More articles in Agriculture from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().