Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in Kazakhstan

Danmeng Wang, Ruolan Li, Guoxi Gao, Nueryia Jiakula, Shynggys Toktarbek, Shilin Li, Ping Ma and Yongzhong Feng
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Danmeng Wang: College of Agronomy, Northwest A&F University, Xianyang 712100, China
Ruolan Li: College of Agronomy, Northwest A&F University, Xianyang 712100, China
Guoxi Gao: College of Agronomy, Northwest A&F University, Xianyang 712100, China
Nueryia Jiakula: College of Pharmacy, Astana Medical University, Nur-Sultan 010000, Kazakhstan
Shynggys Toktarbek: College of Agronomy, S. Seifullin Kazakh Agro-Technical University, Nur-Sultan 010000, Kazakhstan
Shilin Li: College of Agronomy, Northwest A&F University, Xianyang 712100, China
Ping Ma: College of Agronomy, Northwest A&F University, Xianyang 712100, China
Yongzhong Feng: College of Agronomy, Northwest A&F University, Xianyang 712100, China

Agriculture, 2022, vol. 12, issue 8, 1-13

Abstract: Global food production faces immense pressure, much of which can be attributed to climate change. A detailed evaluation of the impact of climate change on the yield of staple crops in Kazakhstan, a major food exporter, is required for more scientific planting management. In this study, the Mann–Kendall test and Theil–Sen Median slope were used to determine climate trends and staple food yields over the past 30 years; random forest was used to analyze the importance of monthly climatic factors; states were classified according to climatic factors through systematic clustering method; and lastly, the influence of climate on yield was analyzed using panel regression models. The upward trend in wind speed and potato yield throughout Kazakhstan was apparent. Furthermore, barley and wheat yields had increased in the southeast. We determined that for wheat, frostbite should be prevented after the warmer winters in the high-latitude areas. Except for July–August in the low-latitude areas, irrigation water should be provided in the other growth periods and regions. As similar effects were reported for barley, the same preventive measures would apply. For potatoes, tuber rot, caused by frost or excessive precipitation in May, should be prevented in high-latitude areas; soil dryness should be alleviated during the germination and seedling stages in low-latitude areas; and irrigation and cooling should be maintained during tuber formation and maturation. Furthermore, hot dry air in March and April could damage the crops.

Keywords: climate change; food security; Kazakhstan; yield of staple crops; planting management measures (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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