Modeling Adaptive Strategies on Maintaining Wheat-Corn Production and Reducing Net Greenhouse Gas Emissions under Climate Change

Xiaopei Yi, Naijie Chang, Wuhan Ding, Chi Xu, Jing Zhang, Jianfeng Zhang and Hu Li
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Xiaopei Yi: Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Naijie Chang: Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Wuhan Ding: Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Chi Xu: Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Jing Zhang: Engineering and Technology Research Center for Agricultural Land Pollution Prevention and Control of Guangdong Higher Education Institutes, College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Zhongkai University of Agriculture and Engineering, Guangzhou 510225, China
Jianfeng Zhang: Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Hu Li: Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China

Agriculture, 2022, vol. 12, issue 8, 1-16

Abstract: Climate change has posed serious challenges to food production and sustainable development. We evaluated crop yields, N 2 O emissions, and soil organic carbon (SOC) in a typical wheat–corn rotation system field on the North China Plain on a 50-year scale using the Denitrification–Decomposition (DNDC) model and proposed adaptive strategies for each climate scenarios. The study showed a good consistency between observations and simulations ( R 2 > 0.95 and nRMSE < 30%). Among the twelve climate scenarios, we explored ten management practices under four climate scenarios (3 °C temperature change: P/T−3 and P/T+3; 30% precipitation change: 0.7P/T and 1.3P/T), which have a significant impact on crop yields and the net greenhouse effect. The results revealed that changing the crop planting time (CP) and using cold-resistant (CR) varieties could reduce the net greenhouse effect by more than 1/4 without sacrificing crop yields under P/T−3. Straw return (SR) minimized the negative impact on yields and the environment under P/T+3. Fertigation (FG) and Drought-Resistant (DR) varieties reduced the net greenhouse effect by more than 8.34% and maintained yields under 0.7P/T. SR was most beneficial to carbon sequestration, and yields were increased by 3.87% under 1.3P/T. Multiple adaptive strategies should be implemented to balance yields and reduce the environmental burden under future climate change.

Keywords: wheat–corn; DNDC; climate change; crop yield; net greenhouse effect (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q1 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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